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1、COREU.S.Large-CapBanks2Q18EPSReview&Outlook:HigherNII,BenignCreditStillFuelsEPSBeatsThemajorityofbankscontinuedtoexceedconsensusEPSestimatesin2Q18...Ofthe21bankstoreporttodate,19beat,whileBBTwasin-line,andWFCmissed(forthe3rdstraightquarter).In2Q18,netinterest
2、income/marginswereaboveconsensus,whileloansloanlossprovisions(aswellasnetcharge-offs)andtaxrates,continuedtoINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Large-CapBanksPOSITIVEUnchangedU.S.Large-CapBanksJasonM.Goldberg,CFAEquityResearch26July2018bebetterthanexpected.OnlyBK,COFandHBANm
3、issedconsensusnetinterestincomeexpectations,whileonlyHBAN,USBandCOFwere2bpsormorebelowconsensusnetinterestmarginforecasts.Everybankrecordedaloanlossprovisionthatwasbetterthanconsensus(exceptforHBANwhichwasin-line),withthemedianbank16%belowtheStreet.Still,feei
4、ncomewasatadlight,whileexpensetrendsvaried.Ofnote,thegroup’sROTCE,ROA,NPA,NCO,andefficiencyratioswereallatpost-crisisbests.…andEPSexpectationsincreasedfor2H18.Themedianbanksawits2H18consensusEPSestimateandits2019EPSestimateeachincrease1%post2Q18results,withov
5、erthree-quartersofourcoveragewitnessingincreases.Thisfolloweda1.4%increaseto2019expectationspost1Q18results.Generallyspeaking,ahighernetinterestmarginandlowerloanlossprovisionandtaxrateassumptionsmorethancompensatedforareductioninbalancesheetgrowthexpectation
6、s.Ourfeeincomeoutlookisslightlybetter,whileexpensegrowthisalsoatouchhigher.Still,wedidlowerouroperatingleverageexpectationsyetagain,asbankslooktobereinvestinganincreasingportionoftheirtaxsavings(andpotentiallytheirloanlossreservereleases).Still,weexpectthemaj
7、oritytobeatagainin3Q18...In3Q18,weexpecthighernetinterestincomereflectingcontinuedloangrowth(H.8loansupin6ofthepast7weeks),widernetinterestmargins(mostbanksstillassetsensitive,depositbetasincreasingbutstillhelpful)and1extraday;variedfeeincometrends(higherinve
8、stmentbankingfeesandservicecharges/cardfees;stablemortgagefees;andlowertradingrevenues);controlledexpenses(efficiencyimprovementsandbranchrationalizationmodestlyoffsetbytechspend,positive
