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1、CORENorthAmericaE&P3Q’18PreviewRubberHitstheRoadfor2018;EARNINGSPREVIEWEquityResearch11October2018SettingtheTonefor2019MacrooutweighsthemicroforQ3earningsseason.Whileweshouldbehearingresultsonanumberofinterestingwells/tests(DVNSTACK,CLRSpringboard,PXDSta
2、ckberry,NBLDJBasin,CDEVLeaCounty),weanticipatethatcommentaryonhowmgmt.teamsarethinkingaboutQ4’18and2019activityinthecurrentconstructiveoilenvironmentwillbethebiggerdriverofstockperformanceandpost-earningssentiment/flow.Normally,inabullishtapewewouldsayE&Ps
3、thatjumpstartnextyear’sproductioninQ4getapassfrominvestorsontheincrementalcapexastheNorthAmericaOil&Gas:E&P(LargeCap)POSITIVEUnchangedNorthAmericaOil&Gas:E&P(Mid-Cap)POSITIVEUnchangedForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandearningschangesinthisreport,pleas
4、eseetableonpage2.marketismoreforward-looking.However,giventhecapitaldisciplinenarrativeinE&P,weareuncertainwhetherthereisinvestorappetiteforsuchbehavior.Capitaldisciplineisnotjustaboutthefreecashflowshowingup,butalsoaboutE&Psdoingwhattheysaidtheywoulddo.Ge
5、nerallyQ3earningsiswhentherubberhitstheroadoncapexguidancefortheyear.ForQ3’18earnings,wethinkmaintenanceof2018capexbudgetsisaproxyforE&Pcapitaldisciplineandisrequiredtoallayinvestorconcernsoverdegradingcapitalefficiency,whichbegantogrowafterthelastearnings
6、season.Ourthoughtsonindividualquarters.Takingintoaccounthoweachstockhasbeentradingheadingintoearnings,sentiment,andourviewonthequarter(incorporatinganyexpectedoperationalcatalysts,execution,howimportantthequarteristothestockthesis,etc)seebelowforourthought
7、sonindividualQ3s.·Positive:MRO,NBL·Neutral:APC,CDEV,CPE,JAG,EOG,PXD·Bearish:DVN,CXO·HighRisk/HighReward:CLRMixedchatteron2019costinflation.WhilemostE&Pswon’tset2019budgetsuntilearlynextyear,someSMidCapshavesuggestedpreliminaryestimatesfor5-10%inflation,giv
8、enexpectationsforrobustindustryactivityandprioritizationofservicequalityoverpricing,withthegoaltomitigateinflationthroughfurtherefficiencies.Incomparison,ontheLargeCapside,managementexpectationson2019costinfl
