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1、October15,201809:00PMGMT39S.KoreaInsurance
2、AsiaPacific3Q18Preview:Belowconsensus-ToppickschangetoHMF/DBMORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLC,SEOULBRANCH+SaraLeeEQUITYANALYSTSara.HS.Lee@morganstanley.com+822399-4836S.KoreaFinancialsAsiaPacific39Wecontinuetoprefernon-lifeinsu
3、rersin4Q18-2019,giventheearningsrecoverymomentumwithhealthcarerepricingandincreasinginvestmentincome.Ourtoppicks:HMFandDB.IndustryViewTickerRatingTP(Won)2018EEPS(Won)New%Chg%UpsideNew%ChgExhibit1:ChangesinRating,TPandEPSAttractive39Westillprefernon-lifeinsurerstolifein
4、surers.Inaflatteningyieldcurveoutlookenvironment,webelievenon-lifeinsurersarebetterpositionedthanlifeinsurers.Althoughwearecuttingour2018earningsforecastsasweexpectweak3Q18resultsduetohigher-than-expectedautolossratios,weseenon-lifeinsurers'earningsrecoveringin4Q18and201
5、9withmorehealthcarerepricingandincreasinginvestmentincome.Werolloverourvaluationsto2019,whichtakesupourpricetargetsfornon-lifeinsurersasweforecastthemtoshow8~16%YoYearningsgrowthin2019.However,ourpricetargetsforthelifeinsurersgodown,giventheirweakerearningsandEVoutlookfr
6、omwideningnegativespreadinalowinterestrateenvironment.WemaintainUWonHLIbutupgradeSLItoEWasthesharepricedownsideissupportedbydividendyield.WechangeourtoppickstoHMFandDBfromSFMpreviously,astheirhealthcareriskmarginimprovementwilllikelybestrongerthanSFMbecauseregulatorsrece
7、ntlyallowedthemtoraisetheir2019premiumsformedicalindemnityhealthcareinsurance.Also,withastabilizingautoinsuranceoutlookandpremiumslikelytogoupduetocurrenthighlosses,smallerinsurersshouldbenefitmore.WebelievetheirRBCsshouldbesufficienttoovercomeanyfinancialmarketvolatilit
8、yin4Q18,withlimitedRBCrisksafter2019astheycanreclassifytheirbondstohold-to-maturitytoreducecapitalvolatility.3Q18preview–wearebelowconsensus:Weforecastnon-lifeinsurers'earningstodecline(-13~33%YoYor-46~9%QoQ)in3Q18,duetohigherautolossesandcompetitionintheGAchannelforhigh
9、ercommissions.Weexpectlifeinsurers'earningswillbeweakandmissconsensusby19~39%becausenegativespread(=inv
