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1、18July2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchOil&GasExploration&ProductionE&PSECTORREVIEW2Q18SMIDE&PCompanyPreview■Macroµcross-currentsin2Q.Headingintothemid-yearupdate,ourfocusisasmuchon2018asitisonearlyreadsinto2019amidstcontinuedmacrovolatility(bothabsolute&spreads).WeexpectourSMID-Capuni
2、versetodeliverlargelyin-line2Qproduction(albeitwithsomeoutliers)butwith2Qcapex~7.5%higheronaverage,echoingasimilarthemefrom1Q,withFYcapexcreepinghigheralmostacrosstheboardwithoutexplicitactivityincreases.Weareonaverage~4%aboveguidanceonFY18capex,andseeJAG,LPI,PDCE,andWPXmostlikelytotweakupcapex.We
3、expectkeyfocusonPermiantakeawayconstraints(witheyeson2019,inparticular),potentialassetsaleupdates(QEP,WLL,&OAS),aswellastheColoradoregulatoryenvironmentassignaturesaredueonproposedballotinitiativesaroundthesametimeDCPPlant10isstartingup.NamesweexpecttohaveapositivesetupgoingintothequarterincludeJA
4、G,PE,&QEPonproductionbeats,andOAS,PDCE,SM,andWLLoncashflowbeats...whilewearemorecautiousonAR,CDEV,LPI,SRCI,andXEC.OurcompanionpreviewcoverssectorthemesandviewsfortheentireCreditSuisseU.S.E&Puniverse.WeareupdatingourEPS/CFPSestsaheadofthequarterforthelatestdisclosure.■Permian:Notoutofthewoodsyet.Wh
5、ilePermiandifferentialconversationshavesomewhatfadedmorerecently,aresolutionisfarfromclear…particularlyon2019aswecontinuetoseebasin-widepipelineutilizationat90+%in2H18,and100%in2Q-3Q19.WiththeexceptionofFANGwhosignedmulti-yearFTagreementwhichsubstantiallyloweredtheirflowriskoverthenext18months,wes
6、eePermianE&Psmakinglittlechangetoexistingmarketingagreementsandprovidinglittlecolorondevelopmentsin2019.Thatsaid,2Qwillbethefirstquartertotranslatefirms’marketingstrategytofinancialsasrelativepricerealizationsin2Qcanbeanindicationofwiderdifferentiationin2H18/1H19.WeseeWPX,FANG,andPDCErelativelybet
7、terpositionedonoiltakeawayamongthePermianSMIDE&Ps.■Bakken:Assetsalesinfocus.WeexpectarelativelyquietoperationsupdatefromWillistonfocusednamesgivenlimitedweatherissues(exceptforCLR)withcompanieshighlighting3Q/4Qpr
