巴克莱-美股-石油与天然气行业-北美石油与天然气：标普指数（大中型企业）

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1、EquityResearch11October2017NorthAmericaOil&Gas:E&P(Large/Mid-Cap)INDUSTRYUPDATECutting‘18/19EOil5-7%to$49-50;NorthAmericaOil&Gas:E&P(LargeCap)UpgradingRRCtoOWfromUWNEGATIVEUnchangedWearelowering2018-19WTIoilestimatesfrom$52.50to$49-$50.WearealsoU.S.Oil&Gas:E&P(Mid-Cap)upgradingRRCtoO

2、WfromUW.RRCjoinsCOGasoneofthetwogasstockswerateNEGATIVEOW.WeremainNegativeonthesectoraswebelievestrongU.S.supplygrowthmayUnchangedpreventoilfromreachingthe$60oilpricethatwebelieveisdiscountedintheshares.Forafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandWeexpectUSoilgrowthtoremainstrong;forecast

3、23%/19%growthforourE&Pearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseegroupin2018/2019.RecentguidanceincreasesfromECA,MROandNBLsupportourtableonpage2.viewthattightoilexecutionremainsstrongdespiteoperationalsetbacks(QEPandPXDrecentlyguidedvolumesdown).WebelieveaslowdowninequityissuanceandrecentN

4、orthAmericaOil&Gas:E&P(LargeCap)investordemandstoscalebackspendingpresentmodestdownsiderisktoestimates.ThomasR.Driscoll+12125263557Wearereducing2018-2019Ecashflowby7%forbothyearstoreflectloweroilandthomas.driscoll@barclays.comgas-priceforecasts,butraisingtargetsaswe“roll”estimatesto2

5、019.WelargelyBCI,USmaintainproductionestimatesandexpectE&Pstospend100-115%ofcashflowastheytypicallydo.Ourrevisedestimatesreflecta2019andmid-cyclegaspriceMichaelLoneganassumptionof$2.85/mmBtu.Weareraisinglarge-cappricetargetsby12%,on+12125264824average,aswerollmid-cycleestimatesto2019

6、.michael.lonegan@barclays.comBCI,USQ3callsarelikelytofocusoncapitaldisciplineandcorporatelevelreturns.AsweIanGormansummarizedinReturnsHaveAlwaysMattered(9/18/17),investorshavesharpened+12125267068theirfocusonthegapbetweenU.S.oilgrowthandstrong“halfcycle”returnsvs.weakian.gorman@barcl

7、ays.comreturnsandshareperformance.Inourview,E&PsneedtoaggressivelycutfixedcostsBCI,USratherthantomerelytrimspending(andforego~50%grossmargins).Wecautionthatreducingcapitalspending,withoutfixedcostcuts,wouldreduceoverallreturns.U.S.Oil&Gas:E&P(Mid-Cap)JeffreyW.RobertsonWeareupgradingR

8、RCtoOWfromUW