j.p. 摩根-2018年中国能源公用事业行业展望-中国-能源公用事业行业

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1、Completed07Nov201707:44PMHKTDisseminated07Nov201707:51PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch07November2017ChinaPowerUtilitiesBackonthegrid–Outlookfor2018(exA-shares)WeassumecoverageofChinapowerutilitieswithapositiveview.China,HongKongFollowingthesector’s16%YTDunderperformanceagainstt

2、helocalUtilitiesindex,webelievemostnegativesfromahighcoalpricehavebeenElaineWuACfactoredintocurrentprices.Weexpectpositivecatalystsin4Q17froman(852)2800-8575estimated8%on-gridtariffhikeandsofteningcoalprices.Tradingat0.7xelaine.wu@jpmorgan.comP/B(1STDbelowaverage)and13%2018Ef

3、reecashflowyield,sectorBloombergJPMAEWUvaluationsareattractive,inourview.OurtoppickisHuanengPower,asitYiDu(852)2800-8563isthemostsensitivetotariffchangesandhasthelargestexposuretocoal-yi.du@jpmorgan.comfiredpowergeneration.J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedTariffhi

4、kelikelyinJan2018.Weexpectthecentralgovernmenttohikecoal-firedpowertariffsbyRmb30/MWh,orc8%ofcurrenttariffsduetoac30%increaseincoalpricesinthepastyear.ThiswouldallowthepowercompaniestoreturntoanROEof10%in2018vs3%in1H17.ChinautilitiesYTDshareperformanceCoalpricesmayeasenextye

5、ar.SpotcoalpricesinChinaremainedata60%53%highlevelofRmb600-700/tonin2017duetostrictenvironmentalinspectionsatcoalminesandstrongdemandfrompowergeneration.As50%powerproducers’inventorydaysreboundedtoanormalizedlevelofc2040%daysrecently,pressureonspotcoalpricesshouldeasein4Q17.A

6、lso,30%23%20%slowereconomicgrowthin2018mayresultineasingcoaldemand.20%7%Ratingchanges.WeupgradeHuaneng,DatangandCRPowertoOW10%onthebackofchangestoourtariffsandcoalpriceassumptions.We0%maintainourNeutralratingonHuadian.WemaintainourOWonChina-10%-2%PowerInternationalasitmayben

7、efitfromparentassetinjection.Riskstoourview.1)HigherhydropowerutilizationcouldresultinSource:Bloomberg.lowercoal-firedpowergeneration.2)Higher-than-expecteddiscountsgiventodirectpowersales.3)Coalpricestrendinghigher.4)Peakingdebtlevelsleadingtohigherinterestcostandpotentiale

8、quityissuance.EquityRatingsandPriceTargetsMktCapPriceRatingPriceTarg