j.p. 摩根-美股-公用事业与电力行业-美国公用事业与电力行业2018年展望：利率定位与税改风险

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1、Completed13Dec201710:30PMESTDisseminated14Dec201701:29AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch14December2017U.S.Utilities&PowerOutlookPositioningfor2018InterestRate&TaxReformRiskafterStrongRun:TopPicksPEG&WRUtilitieshavelargelykeptpacewithbroadermarketstrengthinboth

2、2016and2017,UtilitiesandPowerandat20.0xfwdP/E,relativeupsideforregulatedutilitiesisnowlimited,inourACChristopherTurnureopinion.Weexpect2018tobearesetyearasthesectorfacestheprospectofrising(1-212)622-5696long-terminterestrates,subtletaxreformriskandmanynames

3、aredealingwithchristopher.turnure@jpmorgan.comincreasedcompany-specificrisk.ThoughwehaveseenlessinterestratetorelativeBloombergJPMATURNUREvaluecorrelationthisquarter,regulatedutilitiesareovervaluedversusthecurrent10yrAliciaCheyieldandwouldunderperform~6

4、%intoYE'18atJPM's2.7%forecast,accordingto(1-212)622-0088ourcalculations.Wepreferrisingdividend,lessregulatedandvaluestoriesbutseealicia.che@jpmorgan.comtheneedtobeespeciallyselectiveamidanincreasingnumberofdiscountednames.J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCOurtoppicksa

5、reOW-ratedPEGandWR,andweareupgradingDtoOW.Plentyofvaluenamestochoosefrom,buttooearlyforsome:WestillseeitastooearlyforvaluenamesDUK,ETRandFEandrecentunderperformingSRE.BetteropportunitiesincludePEG,WR,PCGandBKH,especiallyforinvestorswithalongertimehorizon.D

6、espitestrong2017performancewearereiteratingourOW-ratingsonXELandATOandcontinuetoviewthenamesascoreregulatedholdingswithaboveaverageandvisibleearningsanddividendgrowth.ToppicksPEGandWR,upgradingDtoOW:Thereremainfewwayslefttoplaythepowersector,andatanimplied

7、4.5x2020EBITDAand7.2xP/EwedonotseePEG'spowersegmentasbakinginNJorFederalpowersupportoritsconservativebalancesheet.WRisthebestwaytoplayproformaGXP/WR,withsharespoisedtobenefitfromdealapproval,sharebuybacktailwindsandpotentialMOlegislation.ThecommissioningofD

8、'sCovePointLNGfacilityandincreasingDM-relatedcashflowsareonthehorizonfor2018,andwenowhaveimprovedvisibilityintoMillstonesupportinCT.WearealsoremovingEXCfromtheAnalystFocusList,butmaintainourOWrating.U