j.p. 摩根-全球-机械工程行业-全球施工设备行业2018年展望

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1、Completed11Jan201807:50PMESTDisseminated12Jan201812:15AMESTGlobalEquityResearch12January2018ConstructionEquipment2018GlobalOutlook2017sawacoincidentrecoveryacrosskeyregionsforconstructionequipmentandMachinerymomentumremainsstrongheadinginto2018.Chinagrowthledthewayagain(asi

2、nAC2016)whileNA,EuropeandLATAMallinflectedpositivelyin2017andmomentumAnnDuignansuggestsfurtheraccelerationin2018.Thebiggestunknownheadinginto2018isthe(1-212)622-0381ann.duignan@jpmorgan.comimpactofaccelerateddepreciationondemandforconstructionequipmentintheUSasBloombergJPMA

3、DUIGNANcompaniesmaychoosetopullforward/changefleetreplacementcyclesand,coupledJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCwiththepotentialforanInfrastructureBill,suggeststhattherisksareskewedtotheupside.ThomasSimonitsch(1-212)622-2250NorthAmerica:Strongmomentuminto2018.USconstructionactivi

4、tywasupthomas.simonitsch@jpmorgan.com4%in2017,andweexpectfurthergrowthof~4%in2018,drivenbyprivateJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCresidential(+8%)andnon-residential(+2%)activity,whilepublicspendingisAsiaInfrastructure,Industrials&expectedtogrow~1%.USnon-residentialconstructionactivit

5、yis~4%abovelastTransportationcyclepeakandseveralsub-sectors(Power,ManufacturingandOfficeespecially)KarenLi,CFAACcontinuetodecelerate;thesetrendsbearwatchingas2018couldmarkcyclepeak(852)2800-8589fornon-residentialactivity.Weareforecastingequipmentdemandgrowthof~15%karen.yy.l

6、i@jpmorgan.comin2018(following~9%growthin2017)and,with100%depreciationforthenext5BloombergJPMAKLIyears,thecyclecouldbeextended.J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedCalvinCWong,CFAChina:Salesgrowthtomoderatein2018againsttoughcomps.Theturnaround(852)28008502inexcavato

7、rsthatwesawin2016gainedmomentumin2017withsalesup100%calvin.wong@jpmorgan.comYoYsupportedbyreplacementdemandaswellasstrongconstructionactivityJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedacrosssegments(includinginfrastructure,propertyandminingprojects).LookingJapanMachinery,Heavy

8、Industryahead,weexpectoverallgrowthtomoderatein2018againsttoughercompsason-ACthe-g