j.p. 摩根-全球-能源行业-全球液化天然气市场分析：并购升温

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1、Completed08Dec201704:56PMAEDTDisseminated08Dec201705:14PMAEDTGlobalEquityResearch08December2017GlobalLNGanalyzerM&AheatingupinglobalLNGSpotLNGpriceshaveincreasedmorethan80%sincethetroughinJuly2017GlobalLNGwithfurthergainsseeninNovember2017.ThemaindriverforthetightnessisOil&Gascontinuedgro

2、wthinAsiandemandwithChineseimportsinparticularupmoreACMarkBusuttilthan50%overthepast12months.WealsonoteanincreaseinM&Aactivity(61-2)9003-8619inthespacemaybeindicatingthatcorporatesandinvestorsarepositioningmark.busuttil@jpmorgan.comthemselvesforatighteningLNGmarket.ConsensusisfortheLNGmar

3、kettoBloombergJPMABUSUTTILremainoversuppliedintothemid-2020sbutthetimeframeforatransitiontoJ.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimitedanundersupplyappearstobegettingearlierandearlier.Wei-WengChenGlobalLNGproductionroseinNovember2017:WeestimateLNG(61-2)90036262wei-weng.chen@jpmorgan.comprodu

4、ctiongloballywas295Mt(annualized),upfrom292MtinOctober.J.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimitedWeestimateproductionfromAustraliatotaled62Mt(annualized),upfromScottLDarling58MtinOctober2017.GorgonandQCLNGsawincreasesfollowing(852)28008578maintenanceshutdownsinthepriormonth.WenoteGorgonTrain3ha

5、sscott.darling@jpmorgan.comsinceshutdownforplannedmaintenancelastinguntil25December.J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedSpotpricesrisefurtheronacombinationoffactors:TheAsianspotPhilGresh,CFApricerose8.4%toUS$9.49/mmBtuinNovember2017.Newsflowhas(1-212)622-4861beensupportiveforLNGprice

6、swithReutersreporting:1)Qatarhassoldphil.m.gresh@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCoutmuchofitsspareoutputtoChinaandSouthKoreawhichcouldtightenLNGmarketsfurtheraspeakgasdemandhits,2)coalstockpilesinIndiaChristyanFMalek(44-20)7134-9188remainlowmeaningthetypicallypricesensitiveimporterhasb

7、eenforcedchristyan.f.malek@jpmorgan.comtobuyLNG,3)JapanesenuclearplantrestartshavebeendelayedtoJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcperformqualitychecksfollowingtheKobeSteelscandal,leadingtoJeremyTonet,CFApotentialincreaseddemandfromJanuary2018and4)below-average(1-212)622-4915tem