j.p. 摩根-亚太地区-oled行业-oled行业2018：量化所有问题；增长保持不变，oled电视前景看好

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1、Completed19Feb201808:45PMHKTDisseminated19Feb201808:49PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch19February2018ClientsshouldcontactrepresentativesandexecutetransactionsthroughaJ.P.Morgansubsidiaryoraffiliateintheirhomejurisdictionunlessgoverninglawpermitsotherwise.OLEDIndustry2018Quantifyallissues;Growthrema

2、insintactandOLEDTVoutlookappearspromisingOLEDmarketdynamicsshift–fromsupplier-driventodemand-driven.Technology-SemiconductorsRecentiPhoneXweaknessrevealsthatOLEDalsocannotbefreeofdemandACJayKwonresistancefromrisingcostpressures,andpricingbecomesamoreimportant(82-2)758-5725factorforend-demand.Th

3、israisesconcernsregardingshort-/mid-termsectorjay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.comprofitabilityinthemidstoftheUTRbackdropandnewcapacityinstallation.BloombergJPMAKWONAdvanceddesignfeatures(e.g.foldable)arepre-requisitestojustifyapriceJ.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,premium;yetmassvolumeislikelytostar

4、tfrom‘19attheearliest.OntheotherSeoulBranchhand,alackofcompetitionmakesOLED’spositionintheTVspacestillunique,JJParkACinourview.(82-2)758-5717jj.park@jpmorgan.comModelupdate,worseningS/D.ThemobileOLEDmarketsizestoodatBloombergJPMAPARKUS$21bnin‘17thankstohigher-than-expectedASPoffsetbysluggis

5、hflexibleJ.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,OLEDdemand.OwingtohighpricepointsamidstrisingBOMpressure,wecutSeoulBranchourdemandforecastsby13%/8%for18E/19E,butrevenuerevisionsremainNarciChangAClower(-2%/+6%)duetohigher-than-expectedASP.Newcapacitycommitments(886-2)2725-9899fromsuppliershavesofte

6、ned,givenweakpremiumsmartphonedemand.Yet,narci.h.chang@jpmorgan.comoverallS/Disexpectedtoturnworsethroughoutourforecastingperiods.OurBloombergJPMANCHANG2020EmobileOLEDmarketsizeisestimatedatUS$44bn(28%CAGRduringJ.P.MorganSecurities(Taiwan)Limited/J.P.‘17-20)at43%penetrationratewithinsmartpho

7、nes.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedHisashiMoriyamaSensitivitytoOLEDS/DfromApplemodelmixchanges.Inourbasecase(81-3)6736-8601scenario(OLEDmix60%in2H18,seeTable8),SDCA3lineUTRisestimatedhisashi.moriyama@jpmorgan.comat83%a