j.p. 摩根-中国-房地产行业-中国地产业：从周期到结构：第三次重新定价到来

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1、Completed12Jan201803:20PMHKTDisseminated12Jan201804:29PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch12January2018ChinaPropertyFromcyclicaltostructural;thirdreratingtocome[ex-Ashares]Afterthe30%rallysincethetroughinDec2017,webelievethesecondreratingChinawavehastakenplace,drivenbyconfidencerestoratio

2、nonthebackofsustainableChina/HongKongPropertystrongsalesin4Q17despitereportsofpolicytightening.AsmentionedinourACRyanLi,CFA2018outlookreport“Anewera,anewperspective”,weexpectthesectortoseea(852)2800-8529furtherimprovementinfundamentals,withbothastructurallypositivestoryonryan.lh.li@

3、jpmorgan.comtheSeven-City-ClusterandcontinuingmarketsharegainsamonglistedBloombergJPMARLIdevelopers.Thethirdwaveofreratingwillcomesoon,inourview,ledbyaKarlChanchangeinmarketperspectiveonlisteddevelopersoverthenext12months,froma(852)2800-8513cyclicaltoastructurallypositiveindustr

4、y.Weupgradeourpricetargetsforthekarl.chan@jpmorgan.comsector,raisingouraveragetargetP/Efrom9xto10.5x,implying34%avg.AveryChanpotentialupsideonOWnames.Keycatalysts:(1)stronggrowthin2018sales;(852)2800-8659avery.chan@jpmorgan.com(2)consensusearningsupgradeinMarch;(3)evidenceofstablepr

5、opertypolicy.J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedStrongsalesin4Q17despitetighteninggiveinvestorsmoreconfidenceinthediminishingcyclicalityonlisteddevelopers’sales.Webelievethefollowingperceptionchangeswillhappengradually:1)Sustainablegrowthinhomepriceinacontrolledmanner.Withlowl

6、andSummaryofratings&pricetargetssupplyandstabledemand,inventorywillcontinuetofall,andpropertyCompanyRatingPT(HK$)priceswillgrowinacontrolledmanner,ensuringaffordabilityishealthy.COLIOW40.0Vanke-HOW50.02)Policynoisesremain,butlessimpactfulonphysicalmarket.NewsflowCRLandOW35.0onpolicy

7、willremaintight,butthemarketwillsoonunderstandthatmuchEvergrandeUW23.0ofthisisjustlip-service,andoverallsaleswillremainstable.CountryGardenOW24.03)Listeddeveloperswillcontinuetogainmarketshare.SalesandearningsLongforOW30.0R&FOW27.5CAGRwillremainhighatabout30%atthecurrentreinvestment

8、rate.WithShimaoOW30