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1、Completed12Jan201803:20PMHKTDisseminated12Jan201804:29PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch12January2018ChinaPropertyFromcyclicaltostructural;thirdreratingtocome[ex-Ashares]Afterthe30%rallysincethetroughinDec2017,webelievethesecondreratingChinawavehastakenplace,drivenbyconfidenceres
2、torationonthebackofsustainableChina/HongKongPropertystrongsalesin4Q17despitereportsofpolicytightening.AsmentionedinourACRyanLi,CFA2018outlookreport“Anewera,anewperspective”,weexpectthesectortoseea(852)2800-8529furtherimprovementinfundamentals,withbothastructurallypositivestor
3、yonryan.lh.li@jpmorgan.comtheSeven-City-ClusterandcontinuingmarketsharegainsamonglistedBloombergJPMARLIdevelopers.Thethirdwaveofreratingwillcomesoon,inourview,ledbyaKarlChanchangeinmarketperspectiveonlisteddevelopersoverthenext12months,froma(852)2800-8513cyclicaltoastruct
4、urallypositiveindustry.Weupgradeourpricetargetsforthekarl.chan@jpmorgan.comsector,raisingouraveragetargetP/Efrom9xto10.5x,implying34%avg.AveryChanpotentialupsideonOWnames.Keycatalysts:(1)stronggrowthin2018sales;(852)2800-8659avery.chan@jpmorgan.com(2)consensusearningsupgradei
5、nMarch;(3)evidenceofstablepropertypolicy.J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedStrongsalesin4Q17despitetighteninggiveinvestorsmoreconfidenceinthediminishingcyclicalityonlisteddevelopers’sales.Webelievethefollowingperceptionchangeswillhappengradually:1)Sustainablegrowthinho
6、mepriceinacontrolledmanner.WithlowlandSummaryofratings&pricetargetssupplyandstabledemand,inventorywillcontinuetofall,andpropertyCompanyRatingPT(HK$)priceswillgrowinacontrolledmanner,ensuringaffordabilityishealthy.COLIOW40.0Vanke-HOW50.02)Policynoisesremain,butlessimpactfulonp
7、hysicalmarket.NewsflowCRLandOW35.0onpolicywillremaintight,butthemarketwillsoonunderstandthatmuchEvergrandeUW23.0ofthisisjustlip-service,andoverallsaleswillremainstable.CountryGardenOW24.03)Listeddeveloperswillcontinuetogainmarketshare.SalesandearningsLongforOW30.0R&FOW27.5CAG
8、Rwillremainhighatabout30%atthecurrentreinvestmentrate.WithShimaoOW30