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1、LuciaKwong,CFAAsiaPacificEquityResearch(852)2800-852629August2007lucia.yk.kwong@jpmorgan.comFigure1:Forte:Landbankbreakdownbylocation(Attributable4.4millionsqm)HaikouTianjinShanghaiChongqing3%3%23%16%BeijingWuhan8%17%NanjingHangzhouWuxi14%10%6%Source:Comp
2、anydata,JPMorgan.Only42%ofassetvaluecomesfromShanghaiprojectsDuetotheregionalexpansioninthepasttwoyears,Fortehasexposuretosevensecond-tiercitiesontopofShanghaiandBeijingthataccountsfor43%ofitsGAVwhilethoseinShanghaiaccountforonly42%oftheGAV.Nevertheless,S
3、hanghaiisstillthemostsignificantmarketforForte.ForteisakeybeneficiaryoftherecentstrongrecoveryoftheShanghaimarketTable2:Forte:NAVbreakdownBasisRmbmn%ofGAVShanghai1,403,4986,78942%Beijing361,0382,94618%Tianjin96,4369566%Wuhan762,1726594%Nanjing567,6698045%
4、Chongqing683,3141,0386%Wuxi381,1464653%Hangzhou414,5781,1287%Haikou30,1641021%DevelopmentpropertiesDCF14,88892%Less:landcost(1,000)-6%Totaldevelopmentproperties13,88885%Hotel$/room6424%InvestmentpropertiesCaprate1,71511%Grossassetvalue16,245100%Netdebt(De
5、c-06)(2,628)NAV13,617Numberofshares(beforeAlisting)2,529NAVpershare(Rmb)5.4NAVpershare(HKD)5.5ProceedsfromA-shareplacementatRmb4.702,958NAVafterA-shareplacement16,574Numberofshares(afterAlisting)3,161FDNAVpershare(Rmb)5.24FDNAVpershare(HK$)5.41Source:JPMo
6、rganestimates.4LuciaKwong,CFAAsiaPacificEquityResearch(852)2800-852629August2007lucia.yk.kwong@jpmorgan.comRatingupgradeonimprovingfundamentalsandcatalystfromA-sharelistingWeupgradeFortefromUnderweighttoNeutralinlightof(1)thebuoyantChinapropertymarketwhic
7、hisenablingForte’spresalestoshowasignificantimprovement,and(2)theupcomingA-sharelisting,whichprovideslandacquisitionsandhenceearningsgrowthopportunities.ModerateearningsCAGRof27%duringFY07E-09EWeexpectanetprofitgrowthof47%andEPSgrowthof36%inFY07whichwillb
8、ethehighestsincelisting.InFY08-09E,however,webelieveearningsgrowthwillslowdownto27%astheissueofA-shareswillleadtoa20%EPSdilution.Moreover,theearningsgrowthwillbedrivenbyhigherachievedsellingpricesandhencemarginexpan
