j.p.摩根-jpmorgan-亚太股市-通缩背景下，中国房地产公司估值风险降低-2017.7.17china property decreasing risk on asset deflation

《j.p.摩根-jpmorgan-亚太股市-通缩背景下，中国房地产公司估值风险降低-2017.7.17china property decreasing risk on asset deflation》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Completed16Jul201705:23PMHKTDisseminated16Jul201705:45PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch17July2017CorrectedNote(firstpublished16July2017)(Seepage41fordetails)ChinaPropertyDecreasingriskonassetdeflation;upgradePTstomid-cycleP/E[exA/shares]Wereiterateourpositiveviewon

2、Chinadevelopers,andbelieveupcominginterimChinaresultsseasonwillbeakeycatalystforthemarkettoturnmoreoptimisticonPropertyearningsoutlookin2017-18E.Webelievethegovernmentwillretainlow-supplyACRyanLi,CFAenvironmentonland,hencepropertypricesshouldremainintactwithmini

3、mal(852)2800-8529downsidetoNAV.Bluechipsshouldstarttooutperformwithmoreaggressiveryan.lh.li@jpmorgan.comguidanceongrowth,betteraccesstolandandimprovedearningsoutlook.BloombergJPMARLIDeveloperswillsoonreratetomid-cycleP/Einourview.ThisimpliesaP/EKarlChanrera

4、tefrom6.5Xto8.2X(+18%)from:(1)amorecertainoutlookonproperty(852)2800-8513karl.chan@jpmorgan.compricethrough2018;(2)restorationofmarginafterdown-cyclesince2011,whichcouldlasttill2019;(3)ageneralimprovementinbalancesheetamongJevonJim(852)2800-8538developersduetost

5、rongsalesand(4)marketconsolidation,withtop8jevon.jim@jpmorgan.comdevelopers’marketsharetouching28%in5M2017andpotentiallyreaching35-J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited40%by2020.Theinterimresults,whichwillkickstartmarginexpansionandbalancesheetimprovement,wil

6、lbethekeynear-termcatalyst.Chinadevelopers’averagesemi-annualmargintrendAmongnon-SOEswecontinuetolikeCountryGardenandLongforon45%strongearningsmomentum,andalsoShimaoduetomarginsrisingfromtrough40%40%levels.WeupgradeAgiletoOWaswebelievetherecentconsolidationof34

7、%33%35%Sanyaminoritystakeisearningsaccretive.Jinmaoisourtoppickamongsmall31%28%29%28%30%27%27%capsduetotheincreaseinlandprice.WealsodowngradeSinoOceanfromOW25%24%25%23%23%23%25%toNeutralasweseeweakeningsalesinthenear-term,andvaluationlooksrich.21%19%20%17%16%Ex

8、pandedmultiplesforState-OwnedEnterprises(SOEs)andnational14%14%14%13%13%15%12%11%11%12%10%11%10%11%developers:Whenprimarylandpricesareexpensive,wethinkSOEshavean10%ad