j.p.摩根- 亚太股市-insurance financial valuation

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1、Completed23Jun201706:45PMJSTDisseminated23Jun201706:49PMJSTAsiaPacificEquityResearch23June2017Insurance&FinancialValuationUpdateJun23:WePreferP&CInsurersoverLifeInsurers,ButDoNotOverlookLifeInsurersDuetoBoJ’sOfficialPolicyP&Cinsurers:NAVmultipleswere0.77x(versus0.79xattheendofl

2、astJapanEquityResearchweek)forTokioMarine,0.58x(0.60x)forMS&AD,and0.66x(0.69x)forInsuranceandOtherFinanceSompoHD.ThisweekP&Cinsurers'sharepriceddeclinedsubstantiallyonACThursday,andwereceivedquestionsfromnumerousinvestorspuzzledbytheNatsumuTsujino,CFAlackofspecialnegativefactors

3、forthesector.Itappearssomeinvestors(81-3)6736-8618switchedfromP&Cinsurerstootherfinancialstocks,duetootherbrokers’natsumu.tsujino@jpmorgan.comchangesinstockrecommendations.WedonotexpectthisswitchingwillpersistBloombergJPMATSUJINOforlong,however,becauseP&Cinsurershavehighdivi

4、dendyieldsandtotalJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.returnyieldsandthisrelativeadvantagesareunlikelytochangerapidlywhilemonetarypolicydoesnotchangerapidly.TheyhaverelativelysubstantialTOPIXandTPXIndicesofFinancialleewayforimprovementinprofitusedfordividendsevenoverthelongterm,Sub-s

5、ectors(Jan.4,2013=1.0)Xfurthermore,owingtoefficientuseofcapital.2.2Lifeinsurance:OnanEVmultiplebasis,Dai-ichiLifeistradingat0.40x2.0(versus0.40xattheendoflastweek),T&Dat0.40x(0.41x),SFHat0.50x1.8(0.51x)andJapanPostInsurance(JPI)at0.36x(0.35x).Evenifsuper-long1.6interestratesfal

6、l,theytendtobouncebackfirmly.TheBoJiscontinuingtoemphasizethatitwillnotchangeitspolicy,andthatitistooearlytotalkaboutan1.4exitfromeasing.TheBoJ’sJGBpurchasingonlylookslikelytoreachnetgrowth1.2of¥50–60trillionannuallythisyear,however,andthelimitsofcurrentmonetary1.0policycanbesee

7、ninavarietyofways.The10-yearJGByieldtargetlookslikelytocontinuefornow,butamidtoleranceofsteepeninginthesuper-longzoneone0.81/137/131/147/141/157/151/167/161/17ofthefollowingmeasuresisrequiredtosecureconditionsunderwhichlifeTPXFINCSECRinsurerscanoperatedoingappropriatemanagementd

8、ecisionthroughERM,(1)BNKINSUrevisionbytheFSAoft