j.p.摩根-期待2018，前景展望和组合策略-亚太股市-2017.8.6-

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1、Completed06Aug201710:00AMHKTDisseminated06Aug201702:27PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch06August2017Lookingto2018PerspectivesandPortfolios–LiteItistimetothinkabout2018EPS.Our2016endofPPIdeflationthemecalledAsiaPacificEquityStrategyforarecoveryinEPSafterafive-

2、yearrecession.PositiveEPSrevisionshaveACcontinuedthisyear(2017EPSinteger+11%YTD),resultingin2017EPSAdrianMowat(852)2800-8599growthof21%.AswematurefromtherecoverytothethirdyearofEPSadrian.mowat@jpmorgan.comgrowth,itisunlikelythatEPSrevisionswillremainasposi

3、tive.ThisisduetoBloombergJPMAMOWATincreasedconfidenceinthesustainabilityofgrowthbeingreflectedinforecastsJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedandalessfavorablebaseeffect.Thedriverfortherallyis2018’s10%EPSgrowthandre-rating.There-ratingisdrivenbyahig

4、herdiscounttoUSequitiesRajivBatraandtheabilitytosustainpremiumEPSgrowthinAPxJthanDM.(91-22)6157-3568rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.comThisreportreviewsthedriversof10%EPSgrowthfor2018.Table4,Table7J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedandTable8summarizethecountry,sectorand

5、majorcountrysectordriversofSanayaTavaria2018.SectorandcountryconcentrationtoEPSgrowthishigh;IT,financials,(1-212)622-5469CDandRE=75%ofEPSgrowthandChina,Korea,IndiaandTaiwan=78%sanaya.x.tavaria@jpmorgan.comof2018EEPSgrowth.ThereportthengoesontodescribeEPStr

6、endsforeachJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCcountry.JoanneCheungOurstylepreferenceisEPSrevisionscombinedwithforwardP/E.Weare(852)2800-8596addingEPSmomentumintothethirdyearofEPSgrowth.Freecashflowisjoanne.cy.cheung@jpmorgan.comanotherimportantthemelinkedtoChina'sove

7、rcapacityindustry/SoEreform.J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedThisdrivesOWsinTaiwanandKoreanmaterialsplusChinesefinancials.SunnyChabriyaWemonitorourinvestmentsusingthekeycountryandsectortables(Table30(91-22)61573368toTable32).ThisyearEPSrevisionsand

8、relativeperformancearecorrelatedsunny.chabriya@jpmorgan.comwithafewexceptions.WeareconcernedthatEPSrevisionsinIndiaareJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitednegativeacrossmostsectors(weareUWIndianIT,healthcareandstaple