2020亚太股市展望

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1、Asia-PacificEquityOutlook-Summary2019wasayearwhenuncertaintytookitstoll.Afterasolidcyclicalstarttotheyear,theunpredictabilityoftradetensionshasbecomethedominanttheme.Thishasresultedinbothinvestorsandcorporates'de-risking',eachintheirownway.Wethink2020islikelytobeayearwherethi

2、sde-riskingcoincidingwithacyclicalupswingsupportsamodestearningsrecovery.Ourbaselineisforearningstogrowby8%in2020(comparedtoconsensusestimatesof14%).AtUBShoweverweexpectthecycletoweakenfirstbeforeaback-endweightedrecovery.KeyUBSForecastsfor2020:USGDPgrowth1.1%ChinaGDPGrowth5

3、.7%FedFunds1.0%Likecorporates,centralbankshavealsoactedproactively.ThiscreatesthebiggestMSCIAsiaexJapan700headacheforequities–easypolicyandlowbondyieldshavepushedupabsolutevaluationsabovewheretheywouldnormallytrade.Topix1860US10YearTreasury1.5%AsiaexJapanEPSgrowth8%P/EEPS(loc

4、alFX)FXFigure1:DecompositionofAsiaexJapanreturnsintoP/Emultiples,EPSrevisionsandcurrencychange60%40%20%0%-20%-40%200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019-60%Figure2:Progressionofconsensusbottom-upEPSestimatesMSCIAsiaexJapanEPSlevel(US$)2220132017220182014

5、20152016706560555045403530Jan14Jan15Jan16Jan17Jan18Jan19021020019Source:IBES,Datastream,UBSSource:IBES,Datastream,UBSAbettercyclicalearningspictureandgenerallylowriskappetitewouldnormallymakeusverypositiveonequities.Valuationsholdusback.WeseesomeupsideforAsiain2020–7%butourb

6、aseassumesabsolutevaluationsdon'tre-ratefromhere.Ourbasecaseindextargetis700forMSCIAsiaexJapan.Unusually,weseearangeofupsideoutcomes.UBSexpectsUSbondyieldstobewellanchored(1.5%byyearend2020)byeasymonetarypolicy.Anearliertroughinthecyclecoulddriveabetterearningsrecoveryin2020.

7、Alongsidestilleasymonetarypolicyandlowyields,sucharetherelativevaluationattractivenessofequitieswethinktheregioncouldrallystrongly.LikewisekeysectorsinAsiacouldseeearningsrecoverydespiteweakgrowth(inventoryadjustmentinsemis,costcontrolininternetstocksand5GcapexspendalldriveTe

8、chearningsstrongly).Withlowyields,thiscouldleadtogrowthandtechstocks