病毒冲击下的全球商品投资策略.docx

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1、KeycommodityrecommendationsOurcommoditypreferenceslistedbelowaresetrelativetospotpricesreportedshortlybeforethepublicationofthisreport.Next12months’most-preferred·Gold/silver–post-virusgrowthstability+inflationexpectationsrestored.·Uranium–nowadefensivepl

2、ay,asmajorsrestrictsupplygrowth.·Coals–H1’skeypricedriverformet-coal/thermalcoalisChina’srestock.Next12months’least-preferred·Ironore–virus-hitsteeldemandoverwhelmsweaksupplygrowth.·Zinc/lead–on-goingexpansioninminesupplyvs.virus-hitdemand.·Lithium–compet

3、itivesupplysurgestillinplay,cappingallproductprices.Outperformersover2years·Manganeseore–post-virussteelsectorrecoverydriveremerges·Nickel–EVdemandbeginstoinfluencenickeldemand/price·Cobalt–supplyrestraint,whileEV-backeddemandbuilds.5-yearwinners·Nickel/L

4、ithium/Cobalt–EVbatterydemandisacommondriveroftheseinputs.·Copper–stabledemandvs.nowunderperformingminesupplygrowth.·Uranium–China-leddemandgrowthfurthertightenstheglobaloxidetrade.5-yearstrugglers·Coals–steeldemandmoderates/evolvestoEAFs+powerindustriesd

5、iversifyfueloptions.·Steel–China’stransitiontoDM-statusreflectedinmoderatingsteeldemand.·Palladium/Rhodium–ultimatereversalofthesetwoautocatinputs’outperformance.Fig1Positionsofkeymined/extractedcommoditiesinthefundamentalcycle(arrow=2-yearprogression)Hig

6、hstocksStocksDrawingStrongsupplyreactionLimitednewsupplySupplyconstraintCapexlaggingPricesstabliseatlowlevelPricesstablePricingfornewsupplyNickel20Viralshock,23-Mar-PlatinumLeadCopperltCobaUraniumlMet-coaoalThermalCIronOreAluminaChromeSteelluminiumALithiu

7、mZincGoldStrongsupplygrowthStocksbuildingSeverepricedeclineMarketbackinbalanceCapexpeakingPricesfallingDemanddestructionCapexacceleratingPricepeakingStrongDemandPushordeficitmarketPriceAccelerationTinManganeseSilverPalladiumBauxiteSource:MacquarieCommodit

8、iesStrategy,March2020TableofcontentsSummariesPriceforecastrevisions5ExecutiveSummary:Viralshock7MacroOutlook:TheCoronavirusRecessionof202011ContemporaryCommodityTheme:COVID-19’sindustrialssell-offvs.others16StateofC