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1、25October2018GlobalEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyGlobalEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsAndrewGarthwaiteSTRATEGY442078836477andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comBonds,GrowthandLeverageMarinaPronina442078836476USbondyieldsareclosetotheirpeakforthiscycle:10-y
2、earbreakevenmarina.pronina@credit-suisse.cominflationexpectationsat2.1%arerealistic,inourview,withcoreinflationRobertGriffiths442078838885robert.griffiths@credit-suisse.comNicolasWylenzek442078836480momentumhavingpeaked.Moreover,inthreeoutofthelastfourcy
3、cles,US10-yearbondyieldshavepeakedatthesamelevelastheFedFundsrate(whichFedprojectionssuggestwillpeak,onthisoccasion,at3.3%).TheunderperformanceofcyclicalsandfallingglobalPMIsarepositivesforbonds.nicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comTheproblemisrealyields(10
4、-yearTIPS)arestilllow.Atc.100bps,theyareMengyuanYuan442078880368mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comKartikeyaUpadhyay442078882339kartikeya.upadhyay@credit-suisse.comhalfthelevelofpost-1900norms,andwethinkoughttobec20-30bpsabovetheneutralFedFundsrate(i.e.c120-
5、30bpsabovethecurrentFedFundsrate).WeseemoreabsoluteupsideinBundyields:ourhouseviewisthatBundyieldswillreach1.2%in12months'time.StayoverweightUSgrowth:GrowthasastyleintheUScandecouplefrombondyieldsatthisstageofthecycle,asthecostofequitycanfallfromitscurre
6、ntc8.7%iftheERPfallsmorethanbondyieldsrise;late-cycleequitybullmarketsintheUStypicallydonotseealeadershipchange,unlesswemovetoabearmarket;pressureonmarginsfavoursstructuralgrowth;previouslate-cyclebullmarketssawbreadthnarrowaroundgrowthstocks,whichre-rat
7、edto45xto60xearnings(comparedtoc25xnow)evenasbondyieldsrose;andgrowthoutperforms75%ofthetimeISMpeaks,whichithas,wethink.Wefocuson'safe'USgrowthwithlowleverageandreasonableFCF,highlightingthosecompanieswithaHOLT®eCapandhighoperationalquality.Thisfavoursst
8、ockssuchasVisa,Cognizant,AutozoneandF5Networks.StaybenchmarkEuropeanandUKgrowth:UnliketheUS,EuropeanandUKgrowthtendstofollowbondyields,whichhavemuchfurthertorisethantheUS;Europeangrowthismuchmoredisrupted(withconsumerstapl
