瑞信-全球-投资策略-全球股票策略：你在说什么？

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1、27October2017GlobalEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyGlobalEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYAndrewGarthwaite442078836477andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comWhatareyousaying?MarinaPronina442078836476HavingcompletedanextensiveroundofmarketingintheUS,Europeandmarina.pronina@credit-su

2、isse.comAsia,wemakethefollowingcomments:RobertGriffithsMacro:Themostsynchronisedglobalrecoverysince2010isunderwaybut442078838885robert.griffiths@credit-suisse.comclientsareuncertainhowlongthiscouldlastandwhetherhighISMistroublingNicolasWylenzekforequities.Clientsseeclearsignsofinves

3、tment-ledgrowthintheUS(we442078836480agree).ThereisabigdebateaboutwhetherUSlabourisgettingpricingpowernicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.com(wethinkthedataareambiguous)andthisremainsthecriticalmacroissue.AlexHymers442078889710Clientsseeonlyaverymodestriseininflationandthusbondyields.Ast

4、ringofalex.hymers@credit-suisse.comstrongerUSwagedatawouldhitcomplacency,inourview.MengyuanYuanKeyissues:TheunwindingoftheFed'sbalancesheetisthekeyconcern,but442078880368mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comfewseemedtonoticethisyear'sBoJ'stealth'taper.ClientsseerealbondKartikeyaUpadhyayyi

5、eldsastoolow(althoughtheFedhasbroughtdownitsimpliedneutralreal442078882339fedfundsrateto0.8%,from2.2%fiveyearsago).kartikeya.upadhyay@credit-suisse.comWhatisnotbeingaskedabout:China,despitethefactthatearlierthisyearmostclientsthoughtChinawouldslowdownpostthe19thPartyCongress.Whatisb

6、eingincreasinglyaskedabout:ThelikelihoodofaUKLabourgovernmentby2022.Equities:Wefindhedgefundsarebullishbutlong-onlyfundsarestillskeptical.ApartfromtheunwindofQE,themajorconcernsincludehighP/Es,lowvolatilityandalossofbreadth.Allofthesehaveeffectivecounter-arguments.Fewclientstrustthe

7、unusuallyhighequityriskpremium.Credit:Mixedviews.Dollar:Consensusbullish,especiallyagainsttheyen.SpeculatorsarenetlongGBPUSDforthefirsttimeinthreeyears.Regions:Japan–aworryinglyclearconsensuslong(thoughforeignersarestillsellersinthepastthreemonths).ContinentalEurope–alloutflowssince

8、Dec2015bydomesticin