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1、20October2017GlobalCreditSuisseResearchINSTITUTIONALCLIENTSONLY/DONOTFORWARDTheCreditSuissePlaybookResearchAnalystsCreditSuisseResearchPleaseseeinsidecontributorsofeachsectionTaperSwiftInthelatesteditionofourCreditSuissePlaybook,wepreviewnextweek’sECBmeeting,whereexpectationsoftap
2、eringhavedominatedthelead-up,withcontributionsfromacrossresearchincludingEuropeanEconomics,FX,RatesStrategy,GlobalEquityStrategy,TechnicalAnalysisandGlobalEquityThematicResearch.OurEuropeanEconomicsteamexpectstheECBtoannounceanine-monthextensionofQEatapaceofatleast€20bnpcmatThursd
3、ay’smeeting.Thenine-monthextensionatarelativelylowpacefitswiththeideaof‘slowerforlonger’thatlookstohavegainedtractionwithGoverningCouncilmembers,andshouldhelptoeaseupwardpressureontheeuroandeasebondscarcityconcerns.Theythinkthehorizonofpurchases,notthemonthlypace,isnowthekeyvariab
4、leintheECB’scalibrationofQE.OurFXstrategyteamcontinuestoviewrisksforEURUSDasasymmetricallyskewedtotheupside.OurRatesStrategistspointoutthatalongerpre-commitmenttoassetpurchasesandconsequentdelaytothehikingcyclehavelargelybeenpricedin.Theyanticipatehikestobemorefront-loadedin2019-2
5、021thanmarketscurrentlyimplyandexpectgloballong-endyieldstofaceupwardpressureovertimeasadditionaldurationsupplyisabsorbedbypublicmarkets.OurGlobalEquityStrategyteamhighlightsthatwithintheEuropeanequitymarket,stockcorrelationsarelow,theeurohasstabilized,andinternationalflowsintoEur
6、opeanequityfundshavedeclined.InthecaseofSpanishequitiesthough,recentpoliticalvolatilityhasopenedupanotablevaluationandperformancedislocation,andtheylooktoaddtooverweight.OurTechnicalAnalystshighlightthatEuropeanequitiesareatakeyinflectionpoint,withtheEuroStoxx50havingralliedtorete
7、stitslong-termdowntrendfromits2000recordpeakat3630,whichcontinuestocap.Thisremainsseenasthebarriertoamoresignificantphaseofequitystrength.TheyalsonotethatEuropeanBondsandtheEURarecriticallyplaced.OurGlobalEquityThematicResearchteampublishesthefourthseriesoftheirInvestingforGrowthr
8、eportsandrevisitthekeythemesthatt
