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1、25March2020EquityResearchGlobalGlobalEquityStrategyTheoutlookforequitiesInvestmentStrategy
2、StrategyNewEPSgrowthforecasts:OurUSstrategisthastakenUSEPSgrowthdownto-25%inResearchAnalysts2020and+20%in2021.Ourmodelsagree,andforEuropewetakeitdownto-32%in2020and+25%in2021.An
3、drewGarthwaiteEconomicsforecasts:OureconomistshavetakentheireuroareaGDPforecastdownto-4%442078836477andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comand-0.9%fortheUSfor2020,butimportantlyforecastthatthelevelofpre-virusGDPwillbehitbythemiddleof2021.Webelievethat,asoccurredinChina,gl
4、obalPMIswillfalltoaroundRobertGriffiths30,whichwouldbeconsistentwithatroughof-c.2%globalGDPgrowth.442078838885Markets:Thekeyissueisthemultipleonthenewdepressedearnings:anormalbearmarketrobert.griffiths@credit-suisse.comseesa35%de-ratingcomparedwith30%sofar,butwethinkc
5、onsensusearningsarec30%NicolasWylenzektoohigh.WebelievecentralbankswillpermanentlydepressrealbondyieldsrelativetoGDP442078836480growth,andthereforethattheequityriskpremiummodelistheappropriatemodeltouse,rathernicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comthanabsoluteP/Emultiples.
6、TheriseincreditspreadshaspushedupourmodeloftheMengyuanYuanwarrantedERPfrom4.6%to8.2%againstanactualof8.6%.IfweassumethatISMendsthe442078880368yearat50andspreadsfallmarginally,thenS&P500fairvalueis2,700.Thenon-USShillermengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comP/Eat10.1xisbacktol
7、evelsfromwhichithasbouncedoverthepast40years.Whydowethinkmarketscanbe15%higherbyyear-end?AsimAli442078832480Ontheshutdown:Weassumeasix-toeight-weekfulllockdowninEuropeandtheUS,asim.ali@credit-suisse.combeforethemajorityofworkersreturn,onthebasisthatintwotothreemonths’
8、timetreatments,testingandventilatorswillbefarmoreabletoaccommodateasecondspike(which,withsocialTimothyO'Sullivandistancing,shouldbewellbelowthefirstspikeininfection).Moreover,c.85%ofpeoplemostat442078889803timothy.osullivan@credit-suisse.comriskarenoteconomicallyactiv
9、e,andwheretestingishighest,themortalityrateis1%orlower.KoreaandChinaprovideatemplateforproductionresumingwithoutalargerisein
