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1、6April2020EquityResearchGlobalGlobalEquityStrategy10OpportunitiesInvestmentStrategy
2、StrategyWefindthat,historically,90%ofbearmarketshaveseenbearmarketrallies.Westillhavenotseenallthepreconditionswewouldexpectforamarketlow(missingareatroughinResearchAnalystsISMandpeakinnewinfections
3、outsideofChina)andourscorecardofthefactorsneededforadurabletroughisat3.8outof5.Webelievethataconsolidation/movedownoverthenextAndrewGarthwaitemonthislikely,butthattheoldlowswillhold.WesticktoourtargetsfortheS&P500of2,700442078836477asofend-2020and3,100asofend-2021.andrew.garthwaite
4、@credit-suisse.comSelectleverage:Centralbanksarebuyersofinvestment-gradecredit,andIGspreadstendtoRobertGriffithspeakaheadofthetroughinequities.Moreover,IGspreadsarethehighesttheyhaveeverbeen442078838885outsideoftheGFC.Sofarwehavebeenunderweightanyformofleverage.Wethinkinvestorsrobe
5、rt.griffiths@credit-suisse.comshouldlookatthosecompaniesthatareIGwithmediumleverage,includingBT,Fortum,NicolasWylenzekVodafoneandSiemens.442078836480Dividends:Dividendfuturesimplya60%fallinEuropeandividendsin2020.Wewouldlooknicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comfornameswheredividendsap
6、pearsecureandvaluationsreasonable(e.g.SanofiandUnilever).Weincludeadetailed,bottom-upcompany-by-companyanalysisofEuropeandividendMengyuanYuanprospectsbyourresearchcolleagues.442078880368mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comStayoverweightgold:WebelieveTIPSyieldswillbecomemorenegative(asal
7、lcentralbanksprint)andthedollarweakens.Aboveall,wethinkcentralbankbuyingofgoldwillatleastdouble.AsimAliGEMexposure:GEMcurrenciesareonthesamediscounttothedollarastheywereatthe442078832480peakoftheAsianFinancialCrisis,yetexportmarketsharesandbasicbalanceofpaymentsasim.ali@credit-suis
8、se.compositionsaremuchbetter.WelikeindirectGEMexposureviaPru,LafargeandTEFandTimothyO'Sullivanespeciallyviathebeveragecompanies(e.g.Diageo),whichhaveneverbeenthischeapversus442078889803foodproducers.WealsonotetheirGEMexposureisunusuallycheapversusquotedGEMpeers.timothy.osullivan@cr
9、edit-suisse.comStayoverwei
