瑞信-全球-股票策略-全球股票策略：价格是多少，潜在的机会在哪里？-2020.3.10-41页.pdf

《瑞信-全球-股票策略-全球股票策略：价格是多少，潜在的机会在哪里？-2020.3.10-41页.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、10March2020EquityResearchGlobalGlobalEquityStrategyWhatisinthepriceandwherearepotentialopportunities?InvestmentStrategy

2、StrategyBonds:TheUSbondyieldseemstobepricinginISMnewordersof41.ThiswouldbeResearchAnalystsequivalentto-2%GDPgrowth,whichseemstoopessimistictous,especially

3、asthereisapolicyresponse,andpriortothecrisistheUShadarunrateofmorethan2%.TheBundyieldAndrewGarthwaiteispricinginaPMIof43(or-0.5%GDPgrowth).WethinkwearemorelikelytoseeEuropean442078836477PMIsfallingbelow43thanISMnewordersfallingbelow41.andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comGold

4、:Wetakegoldtooverweight.IthaslaggedthefallinTIPSyields,andtheP/EofgoldRobertGriffithsstocksisstillbelowaverage.Goldbenefitsfromcentralbankdiversificationandaweakdollar.442078838885Equities:TheERPisnow7.7%againstawarranted6.2%,onourestimates.Thisispricinginrobert.griffiths@c

5、redit-suisse.coma6%declineinEPSandISMof45.Thisseemspessimistictous.Wehaveseen4outofthe7NicolasWylenzekfactorsthatweneedtoseemarketsbottom(thosethataremissinginclude:i)troughinPMIs442078836480(April?);ii)peakinnewinfections;andiii)amajorEuropeanpolicyresponse.Thetacticalindi

6、catorsnicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comareveryclosetocapitulationlevels.)WetakeEuropeanEPSdownto-2%vs.abottom-upMengyuanYuanconsensusof10%.Weacknowledgethatoilshockscreatedfinancialshocksin1998and2016442078880368(astherelativelosersfromafallintheoilpricehavetoadjustmorequi

7、cklythanthewinners).mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comRegions:WestayunderweightContinentalEurope,whichistradingveryclosetoitsnormonaAsimAlisector-adjustedP/EtotheUS(atjust4%)despitehavingthemostlimitedmonetaryandfiscal442078832480policyresponsetothecrisis.Japanisthemostcyclica

8、lregion(inourview)andispricinginaasim.ali@credit-suisse.comglobalPMIof47(implying1.6%globalgrowth,theOECDsaidinthecaseofanlongermoreintensevirusoutbreak,GDPgrowthwouldbe1.5%).TheforwardP/EofJapanrelativetoTimothyO'Sullivanglobalmarkets(ata14%discount)isclosetoall-timelowspl

9、ustheBoJandcorporatescould442078889803timothy.osullivan@credit-suisse.combuyc8%ofm