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1、12August2019GlobalEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyGlobalEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYAndrewGarthwaite442078836477andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comFiscalQE&construction–astrongoverweightRobertGriffiths442078838885Webelieveconstructionisaclear-cutoverweightinEurope,and'f
2、iscalQE'—robert.griffiths@credit-suisse.comcentralbankfinancingoffiscalprojectsindirectlyordirectly—willbeusedinNicolasWylenzekthenextrecessiontofinanceconstruction.442078836480nicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.com■Constructionstilldepressed:Constructionspendingis7%and13%MengyuanYua
3、nbelowitsnorminEuropeandtheUS,respectively.Constructionconfidence442078880368mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comisatrecordhighsinEurope,implyingc4%growthinconstructionspend.AsimAli■Shortageofpublicinfrastructure:Inmostdevelopedeconomies,public442078832480asim.ali@credit-suisse.cominf
4、rastructureinvestmentisc30%belowitsnorm(andtheGlobalInfrastructureHubbelievesthisneedstoriseto3.6%ofGDPfrom2.9%).IntheUS,theinfrastructureshortfallby2040requiresac25%increaseinnon-residentialconstructionspending.Thereareclearexamplesindevelopedmarketsofspendingpickingup(Canada,th
5、eJunckerPlaninEurope,theUK).InGEM,theshortfallisevengreaterthanDMandlevelsofgovernmentdebttoGDParemuchlower.Accordingly,manyGEMcountrieshavelargeinfrastructureplans(e.g.IndiaandIndonesiatogetherplantospend$1.8tnby2024).■Residential:IncoreEurope,mostmortgagesarefixed,andthemortgag
6、erateisnowevenfurtherbelowtherentalyield,drivinguphouseprices.Thisusuallymeansstrongerhousingactivity,actingasacounter-cyclicalhedge.■FiscalQE:Thefallinbondyieldshasmeantgovernmentshavemorefiscalleeway(weestimateGermanycouldincreasespendingbyc5%ofGDPbeforegovernmentdebttoGDProse)
7、.Japanhasnetgovernmentdebt3xhigherthanEurope.Thekeyisthatifthereisarecession,realratesneedtofallby5pp,butcan’t.Theonlyalternativeweseeiscentralbanksdirectlyfinancingspending.Infrastructurespendingisprofitable,withamultiplierof1.7x,andcanemployworkersfromdisruptedindustries.Modern
8、MonetaryTheoryprovidessomeintellectualsu
