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ID:52984342
大小:2.68 MB
页数:41页
时间:2020-04-06
《瑞信-全球-股票策略-全球股票策略:价格是多少,潜在的机会在哪里?-2020.3.10-41页.pdf》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、10March2020EquityResearchGlobalGlobalEquityStrategyWhatisinthepriceandwherearepotentialopportunities?InvestmentStrategy
2、StrategyBonds:TheUSbondyieldseemstobepricinginISMnewordersof41.ThiswouldbeResearchAnalystsequivalentto-2%GDPgrowth,whichseemstoopessimistictous,especially
3、asthereisapolicyresponse,andpriortothecrisistheUShadarunrateofmorethan2%.TheBundyieldAndrewGarthwaiteispricinginaPMIof43(or-0.5%GDPgrowth).WethinkwearemorelikelytoseeEuropean442078836477PMIsfallingbelow43thanISMnewordersfallingbelow41.andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comGold
4、:Wetakegoldtooverweight.IthaslaggedthefallinTIPSyields,andtheP/EofgoldRobertGriffithsstocksisstillbelowaverage.Goldbenefitsfromcentralbankdiversificationandaweakdollar.442078838885Equities:TheERPisnow7.7%againstawarranted6.2%,onourestimates.Thisispricinginrobert.griffiths@c
5、redit-suisse.coma6%declineinEPSandISMof45.Thisseemspessimistictous.Wehaveseen4outofthe7NicolasWylenzekfactorsthatweneedtoseemarketsbottom(thosethataremissinginclude:i)troughinPMIs442078836480(April?);ii)peakinnewinfections;andiii)amajorEuropeanpolicyresponse.Thetacticalindi
6、catorsnicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comareveryclosetocapitulationlevels.)WetakeEuropeanEPSdownto-2%vs.abottom-upMengyuanYuanconsensusof10%.Weacknowledgethatoilshockscreatedfinancialshocksin1998and2016442078880368(astherelativelosersfromafallintheoilpricehavetoadjustmorequi
7、cklythanthewinners).mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comRegions:WestayunderweightContinentalEurope,whichistradingveryclosetoitsnormonaAsimAlisector-adjustedP/EtotheUS(atjust4%)despitehavingthemostlimitedmonetaryandfiscal442078832480policyresponsetothecrisis.Japanisthemostcyclica
8、lregion(inourview)andispricinginaasim.ali@credit-suisse.comglobalPMIof47(implying1.6%globalgrowth,theOECDsaidinthecaseofanlongermoreintensevirusoutbreak,GDPgrowthwouldbe1.5%).TheforwardP/EofJapanrelativetoTimothyO'Sullivanglobalmarkets(ata14%discount)isclosetoall-timelowspl
9、ustheBoJandcorporatescould442078889803timothy.osullivan@credit-suisse.combuyc8%ofm
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