为什 么联邦演示的增长会停滞不前

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1、NorthAmericaEquityResearchJune7,2019TakingAnotherLookattheDual-EligibleOpportunityWhyDidGrowthoftheFederalDemosStall?CouldNewIntegrationRequirementsStallCurrentD-SNPGrowth?WhoIsBest/WorstPositioned?WhyIsHumanaFrequentlyDiscussingDuals?InstitutionalInves

2、torClientConferenceCallFridayJune7,20199AMETContactyourJPMsalespersonfordetailsHealthcareFacilities&ManagedCareGaryTaylorAC212-622-6600gary.taylor@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCAnthonyMakdessi212-622-3682anthony.makdessi@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecur

3、itiesLLCSeetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.1J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconfl

4、ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Agenda1)TopTenFactsaboutDuals2)Whatare“Dual-Eligibles”?SizeofMarketandGrowth3)HowareDualsCurrentlyCovered?4)WhyDid

5、DemonstrationsStall?WhyisD-SNPAccelerating?5)NewIntegrationRequirements–ThreattoNon-AlignedD-SNPs?6)TopEightIndicatorsthatIntegrationWillAccelerate7)CouldNewIntegrationRequirementsStallCurrentD-SNPGrowth?8)Best&WorstPositionedtoCaptureIncreasedMCOPenetr

6、ationofDuals?9)WhatIsHumana’sDuals“Obstacle”andHowCanTheySolveIt?10)EnrollmentSnapshotbyState11)CompanyExposurebyProgram12)GlossaryofTermsDualsMktOverviewTimelineDualsDetailsMMPD-SNP(incl.FIDE)IntegrationBest/WorstPositionedHumanaEnroll.ByStateExposureB

7、yCo.GlossaryTopTenFactsaboutDual-Eligibles1)12mAmericansaredually-eligibleforbothMedicare(whichcurrentlyhas60mtotalenrollment)andMedicaid(70mtotalcurrentenrollment)2)Thedual-eligiblepopulationisgrowing~3%annually(trailing10yrCAGR),slightlyfasterthanthet

8、raditionalMedicarepopulationgrowthof2.6%,withsimilarforecastedgrowthrates3)Thepartial-benefitdual-eligiblepopulation(30%oftotal)isgrowing~6%annually(trailing10yrCAGR),materiallyfasterthanthefull-benefitdual-eligiblepopulation(70%