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1、EquityResearchEuropeLuxuryJewelleryWhyjewellerymayhavelostsomesparkleLuxuryGoods
2、ConnectionsSeriesConnectionsSeriesJewellerybrandsfacingamoredifficultmarketbackdrop.Beyondnear-termCOVID-19disruptionpossiblycosting2pptofjewelleryindustrygrowthin2020,wefindthatthepositiv
3、ewealtheffectsofthepastthreeyearsarerollingover,jewelleryconsumptionisincreasinglydirectedtowardsself-purchases,anddemographictrendsaremarkedbydecliningmarriagesandbirthrates.Theoutlookforbrandedjewellerylooksbetterthanthatforunbranded,butweforecastindustrysalesgrowtht
4、oslowto+6%overthenextfiveyears,from+9%paoverthepast20years.Inaddition,crediblenewentrants,suchasLVandGucci,areputtingpressureonestablishedbrands(eg,CartierandBvlgari),andcouldcontributeupto1pptofindustrygrowth,onourestimates.Subduedoutlookfordiamondminersgivenlowerindu
5、stryinventoryrequirements.Alrosaforecastsonlinepenetrationtoriseto25%in2025from10%in2020.Thismeansfasterinventoryturns,whilejewelleryretailersfailingprovidesexcesssupplyofinventory.Weestimatethatinventoryrequirementsforthejewelleryindustrywillgrowatonly+1%paoverthenext
6、fiveyears.Thiscoulddampenpricingaswellasphysicaldemandforroughdiamonds.Coupledwithamid-streamfacingbothprofitabilityandfinancingdifficulties,wethinkminerswillhavetotakeonmorecuts(DeBeersisforecasting+6%pasalesvolumegrowthoverthecomingyears).Thisultimatelyresultsinonlya
7、modestrecoveryfromaweak2H19,butmeansdowngradestomarketexpectations.UnderperformratingonRichemontwithSFr69targetprice,cutfromSFr71.WecutourFY20operatingprofitforecastby12%chieflyduetoCOVID-19,andcutourFY21forecastby6%owingtosoftwholesaleaswellasacautiousstanceonCartierj
8、ewellerygrowth.Thestockistradingat22xCY21EP/Eagainstluxurypeersat23x,despitegreaterconsensusearningsriskforRichemontatthisstageofthecycle.NeutralratingonAngloAmericanwith£22.50targetprice,reducedfrom£23.50.2019hasbeenapooryearfordiamonds.Wepreviouslyassumedafullrecover
9、yinvolumesandpricesby2021;however,giventhemoresubduedoutlookweoutlineinthisreport,wereduceourEBITDAby1%in2020Ebut3.5%
