为什 么中国要以全球奢侈品市场两倍的速度增长

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1、EquitiesGlobalLuxuryGoodsApril2019www.research.hsbc.comBy:ErwanRambourg,AntoineBelgeandAnne-LaureBismuthSPOTLIGHTPandaLuxuryStaycationWhyChinashouldgrowattwicethegloballuxurymarketpaceRecentRMBappreciationissupportivetosaleswithtravelingChinese,mostlyinAsiaButshiftsinpricing,e-commerce,andtr

2、avelretailmeanrepatriationofgrowthinmainlandChinaseemsstructural,growingat12%vs6%globallyperourestimatesin2019WeseeKering,Swatch,Richemont,andSMCP(allBuys)andBurberry(Hold)well-placedtobenefitfromthatrepatriationofgrowthPlayvideowithErwanRambourgDisclosures&Disclaimer:Thisreportmustbereadwit

3、hthedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Whyreadthisreport?RecentRMBappreciationissupportivetosaleswithtravelingChinese,mostlyinAsiaButshiftsinpricing,e-commerce,andtravelretailmeanrepatriationofgrowthinmainlandChinalooksstru

4、ctural,growingat12%vs6%globallyperourestimatesin2019WeseeKering,Swatch,Richemont,andSMCP(allBuys)andBurberry(Hold)well-placedtobenefitfromthatrepatriationofgrowthThepanda’s2019travellogWehavelittledoubtthatin2019Chineseconsumptionwillonceagainhelpsupportglobalgrowthintheluxurysector.Whileth

5、eremaybesomeshort-termgrowthabroad,webelievethatinthelongrun,luxuryconsumptioninChinaitselfwillgrowmore.TwokeythemesweseeplayingoutwithChinesetravel:ErwanRambourgThisyear,wethinkthatluxuryconsumptionoutsideofChinawillbenefit,particularlyGlobalCo-HeadofConsumerandRetailResearchastheRMBhasstr

6、engthenedrelativetokeycurrenciesincountrieswhereluxuryHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.erwanrambourg@us.hsbc.comconsumptionhappens.Ourtravelingpandastendtofollowthemoney,particularlythe+12125258393weakercurrencies,sothisbodeswellforluxuryconsumptionoutsideofChina.Othersupportivefactorsincludetheeasing

7、ofvisasinmanydestinations,whichmakesiteasierforChinesetouriststotravel,butwethinkthattheactionwillhappenmoreinAsiathaninEurope(security)andtheUS(cost).Longterm,luxuryconsumptionwillhappenincrementallyathome.Keystructuralfactorsthatdiscouragedluxur