新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：大选追 踪

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1、ARGENTINA:ELECTIONTRACKEREMERGINGMARKETSFlorenciaVazquez,EconomistApril2019PleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthisreportBNPParibasSucursal-BuenosAiresKEYMESSAGESCONTENTSWehaveupdatedourArgentinaelectiontrackertoincludetheresultsofnewpolls,dataonthepositiveimageandrejectionr

2、ateofthemainpoliticalfiguresandinsightonrelevantupcomingprovincialelections.WhilethenetpositiveimageofpoliticalfigureswithinCambiemoshasdeterioratedfurther,PresidentMacri’sapprovalratinghasremainedstable.Membersoftheoppositionhavegenerallynotbenefittedfromthedecline(seeslides26and2

3、9).TheemergenceofRobertoLavagnaasapotentialpre-candidateforthemoderatefactionofthePeronistpartyisattractingattention.PoliticalanalystsseehimasathreattoPresidentMacriinapotentialrun-off(seeslide30).Theformatisuserfriendlyandeasytonavigate.Wewillupdatethistrackerfrequentlytokeepyouab

4、reastwiththelatestdevelopments.STATEOFPLAYPOLLSKEYISSUESPARTIESANDLEADERSCURRENTCONGRESSLINKSTORECENTPUBLICATIONSSTATEOFPLAY2019ElectionCalendar4Electionprocess5Provincialelections:generalaspects6Provincialelections:calendar7Provincialelections:highlights8Provincialelections:detail

5、s9Provincialgovernors:politicalaffiliation10201912–Deadlineforformalappointmentofpoliticalalliances22–Deadlineforformalappointmentofpre-candidatestocompeteintheprimaries27–Officialregistryofvotersispublished12–Electoralcampaignforthenationalprimariesstarts27–Elections(1stroundfo

6、rpresidentandlegislative)2–FirstdayofelectoralcampaignonTV,radioandinnewspapers19–PollsandelectoralforecastsarebannedMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember10-Registryofpollstercompaniesforthenationalprimariescloses27-Ballotlocationsareassignedandmadepublic13-For

7、malinvitationtothemandatorypresidentialdebate22–Electoralcampaignforthegeneralelectionstarts24–Elections(2ndroundforpresident)10–NewPresident11–NationalPrimaries(PASO)takesofficeSources:DireccionNacionalElectoral,BNPParibas1.Somedatesaretentativeandwillbeconfirmedlater.Primaries

8、(PASO)Primariesaremandator