非洲猪瘟时代的猪周期-农林牧渔行业：产业格局重塑.docx

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1、目录1、猪瘟导致的生猪禁运或成常态化......................................................................-4-1.1、猪瘟科普.......................................................................................................-4-1.2、海外疫情发展情况.......................................................

2、................................-5-1.3、国内疫情加速蔓延.......................................................................................-6-1.4、禁运相关的政府法令...................................................................................-9-2、生猪禁运下的南北割裂........................

3、............................................................-10-2.1、产、销区生猪价格分化.............................................................................-10-2.2、补栏积极性受挫.........................................................................................-11-2.3、销区快速出

4、栏，产区压栏.........................................................................-13-2.4、区域性猪周期或将持续一段时间.............................................................-14-3、行业格局重塑..................................................................................................

5、..-14-3.1、消费区的猪价最低点或已过去，未来长期景气......................................-14-3.2、产区面临供给过剩，或加速去产能.........................................................-17-3.3、冷鲜肉开启新纪元.....................................................................................-19-4、销区养殖企业、产区屠宰企业有望受益

6、........................................................-20-4.1、销区养殖企业受益.....................................................................................-20-4.2、产区屠宰企业受益.....................................................................................-27-5、投资建议....

7、........................................................................................................-34-6、风险提示............................................................................................................-34-图1、非洲猪瘟病猪症状...................................

8、....................................................-4-图2、非洲猪瘟病毒环境耐受力强..........................