那提西银行-全球-经济理论-如果劳动参与率上升会怎么样？

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1、FlashEconomicsWhathappensiftheparticipationraterises?19January2018-50IntheUnitedStates,theparticipationrate(thefractionofthelabourforcewhichispresentinthejobmarket)hasnowstabilised,butintheeurozoneitisstillonarisingtrend.Wewillthereforeseektoidentifytheeffectsofariseinthepar

2、ticipationrate.Ariseintheparticipationratenormallyresultsin:Additionalgrowth;Afallininflation(becausethelaboursupplyisincreased)andhenceininterestrates.Thisispositiveforequityandcredit(corporatebond)markets.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtu

3、swww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsRisingtrendintheparticipationrateintheeurozoneAfterrecoveringslightly,theparticipationratenowseemstohavestabilisedintheUnitedStates(Chart1).Intheeuro

4、zone,theparticipationrateisonarisingtrend(Chart2,showingtheparticipationratecalculateduniformlyfortheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone).Thiscontinualriseintheeuro-zoneparticipationrateismainlyduetotheriseintheparticipationrateoftheover-55agegroupasaresultoftheincreaseintheretiremen

5、tage(Chart3).Chart1Chart2UnitedStates:Participationrate(as%)Participationrate*(as%)86866868UnitedStatesEurozone676784846666828265658080646478786363(*)[Employment+unemployment]/populationaged20to64Sources:Datastream,BLS,NatixisSources:Datastream,BLS,Eurostat,Natixis6262767698

6、000204060810121416189800020406081012141618Chart3Participationrate*of55-64year-olds(as%)7070UnitedStatesEurozone656560605555(*)[Employment+unemployment]/populationaged55to64505045454040Sources:Datastream,OECD,Natixis35359800020406081012141618Giventhisrisingtrendintheeuro-zone

7、participationrate,weseektoidentifytheeffectsofariseintheparticipationrate.Whateffectsofariseintheparticipationrate?Ariseintheparticipationratemeansthatthelabourforcegrowsfasterthantheworking-agepopulation(Charts4AandB),andthisincreasesacountry'sgrowthpotential.2FlashEconomic

8、sChart4AChart4BUnitedStates:Labourforce*andpopulationagedEurozone:Labourfor