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1、EuropeanMetals&MiningDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateNorthAmerica15January2018EuropeanMetals&Metals&MiningMiningRecommendationMetals&MiningChangeEarningsupgrades&strongcashreturnsahead?BuyRIO,GLEN,FMLiamFitzpatrickRaisingpriceforecastsandearningsestimate
2、sResearchAnalystSinceearlyDecembercommoditypriceshavereboundedstronglydrivenbystrongglobalGDPgrowth,tightsupplyandseasonalfactors.Consequently,welift+44-207-541-3233ourQ417and2018priceestimates(Fig10)withthebiggestneartermupgradesPatrickJonestocoalandoil.Resultantly,
3、our2017-18EBITDAestimatesliftby~10-15%acrossResearchAnalystourcoverage(Fig11).Forthelargecapswesitonaverage>10%above2018+44-20-754-53400consensusEBITDA.WeexpectbulkpricestofadebackfromQ2butthisispricedin.Structurally,wecontinuetoseeupside(vsspotlevels)forcopperandnic
4、kelBastianSynagowitzoverthenext1-3years.ResearchAnalyst+41-44-227-3377Toppicks:RIO,GLEN,FM;CutBOLtoSell;capitaldisciplineintofocusDespiterecentoutperformance,wemaintainourpositivesectoroutlook,asPatrickMann,CFAoutlinedinour2018MiningOutlook.Ongoingcapitaldisciplineca
5、nre-ratetheResearchAnalystmajorsfurther(10-15%upsidetoDBmid-cycle)andweexpectmanagement+27-11-775-7282teamstobroadlymaintainaconservativebias,focusingonselectivegrowthtorebuildtrackrecordsandinvestorfaithinreturns.However,wedowngradeBOLRobinDraegergivenearningspressu
6、reandexpensivevaluation.Toppicks:RIO(leadingcashResearchAssociatereturns),GLEN(undervaluedgrowth,basemetalexposure)andFM(superior+44-20-754-13352medium-termcoppergrowth).Sells:ANTO,BOL,S32.KeyChangesCompanyTargetPriceRatingMarketleadingcashreturns,butwatchforcapex,op
7、ex,M&ArisksWeexpecttwoyearsofdeleveragingtoleadtoasignificantliftincashreturnsinNHY.OL52.00to58.00-2018.RIOremainsaleaderonthisfrontwithacashreturn(dividend+buyback)FM.TO20.00to23.00-yieldofover8%.Bymid2018theothermajorswillbeatorbelowlowerthresholdKAZ.L750.00to-950.0
8、0netdebttargetsprovidingscopeforgreatcapitalmanagement.However,weseeANTO.L800.00to-remainwaryofcapexandopexinflation,whilerenewedM&A
