德银-欧洲-金属和采矿行业-预估提升：铜从2018年开始赤字，但可以逢低买入

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1、EuropeanMetals&MiningDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateNorthAmerica13October2017EuropeanMetals&Metals&MiningMiningForecastChangeMetals&MiningRaisingestimates:Copperdeficitsfrom2018,buythedipsinironoreLiamFitzpatrickRaisingestimatesResearchAnalystWehaveraisedourestimatesformostcommoditie

2、s,mostnotablyforcopper,zinc,nickelandcokingcoal(Fig10).Asaresult,welift2017-18EBITDAestimates+44-207-541-3233byc.5%-10%acrossourcoverage(Fig11).Forthelargecapswesitc.10%abovePatrickJones2018consensusEBITDA.Stockpicks:AsoutlinedinourrecentnotePicktheResearchAnalystcommodity,pickthecashflowinvestors

3、shouldfocusontwothemes-cashflow+44-20-754-53400qualityandcommodityexposure;ourtoppicksareRIO(valuation,cashreturns),GLEN(copperandzincexposure,latentcapacitygrowth)andFM(leadingcopperPaulYoungnamefor2-3yeargrowth).ResearchAnalyst+61-2-8258-2587Copper:deficitsfrom2018Wenowexpectthecoppermarkettobein

4、asustaineddeficitfrom2018BastianSynagowitz(previously2019)andhaveraisedour2018forecastby~15%from$257c/lbResearchAnalystto$297c/lb.Weexpectagreaterdeficitin2018of295kt(comparedto255+41-44-227-3377ktpreviously)givenslowerexpectedpaceofcommissioningatseveralmajorprojectsincludingKatangaandCobrePanama.

5、WeseesustainedmarketdeficitsRobinDraegersupportingfurtherupsidethrough2021.ResearchAssociate+44-20-754-13352Ironore:buythedipsforaspring2018reboundAsoutlinedinourrecentironorereportweexpectChinesesteelproductioncutsKeyChangesoverheatingseason(NovtoMarch)toputdownwardpressureonpricesnearCompanyTarg

6、etPriceRatingterm.WenowforecastUS$55/tfor4Q17thenarecoverytoUS$70/tbymid-2018;RIO.L4,300.00to-4,500.00wethinkthewinterrestrictionscouldleadtoastrongpick-upindemandinSpringGLEN.L420.00to-2018.Ourmargincurveshowsthatc.15%ofglobalironoreproductionloses430.00cashatUS$50/tandwenowseethefairvaluerangef

7、or62%FeatUS$50-70/t.AAL.L1,270.00to-RIOandBHParealreadydiscountingironoreinthelow$50sandwewoulduse1,300.00anyweaknessasabuyingopportunity.BLT.L1,600.00to-1,650.00KAZ.L500.00to-Mid-cyclevaluationcheck:mediumtermre-ratin