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1、EquityResearch8January2018Metals&MiningINDUSTRYUPDATEMovingintoahighergearEuropeanMiningAsweturnthepageinto2018theoutlookfortheminingsectorremainscompelling.POSITIVEAstrengtheningmacrobackdrop,limitedcapex,volumeandM&AresponsesfromtheUnchangedcompaniestohigherpric
2、es,strongearningsmomentumandcashgeneration,risingreturnsoncapital,underleveragedbalancesheets,cheapvaluationmultiplesonForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandcurrentcommoditypricesandlightpositioningcreateconditionsforcontinuedearningschangesinthisreport,pleasesee
3、outperformance,inourview.Copper,aluminiumandgoldareourpreferredtableonpage2.commoditiesfor2018.Thediversifiedstradeon10.3%FCFyieldin2018and5.5xEV/EBITDAonourbasecase;or13.6%and4.4xonspot.EuropeanMiningAmosFletcher,CFAUpgradestopricedeck:Weupgradeforward-lookingfor
4、ecasts.Mostmaterial’18+44(0)2077732225upgradesareformetcoal(+47%to$215/t),copper(+17%to$3.04/lb),nickel(+15%amos.fletcher@barclays.comto$5.75/lb)andoil(+16%to$60/bbl).DespiteslightlystrongerFX,thisdeliversBarclays,UKaverageEPSupgradesforthesectorof23%in2018Eand201
5、9E(mcapwtdavg).Wearemostbullishonthebasemetalscomplexoverthenexttwoyears,asreflectedinourIanRossouw,CFAforecasts.Ironoreappearsmorevulnerableonfundamentalsbutarisingcostcurve+44(0)2035552620(qualitydiscounts,FX)andongoingsupplydisciplinefromthemajorsissupportive.i
6、an.rossouw@barclays.comGoldcouldfinallybreakoutofits4yrtradingrangeifinflationstartstoliftglobally.Barclays,UKMacro–slowinghousinginChinabutbenignelsewhere:TheconstructioncycleisKennedyNyangoni,CFAslowinginChinawithsalesandstartsdecelerating.Thiswillbeaheadwindfor
7、+44(0)2031345765commoditydemand(~45%ofChinesesteeldemand,~30%ofcopper).However,landkennedy.nyangoni@barclays.comsalesremainstrongandfloorspaceinventorieslowwhichshouldsupportstartsin2018Barclays,UK–weexpect+3%growth.Meanwhileex-Chinademand,whichdoesstillmatter,iso
8、nanupwardtrajectorywithPMIsacceleratingintheEU,USandmajorEMs,whilemonetarypoliciesremainexpansionary.Deleveragingdespitecapex/opexrising:therecentCMDsre
