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1、EquityResearchEuropeanMetals&MiningResearchAmosFletcher+442077732225amos.fletcher@barclays.comBarclays,UKEuropeanMetals&MiningIanRossouw+442035552620ian.rossouw@barclays.comBalanceofriskremainstotheupsidefornowBarclays,UKJune2017BarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesa
2、ndseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Thisresearchreporthasb
3、eenpreparedinwholeorinpartbyequityresearchanalystsbasedoutsidetheUSwhoarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE68.Summary:Balanceofriskremainstotheupsidefornow•Positivesectorviewoncommoditycapacit
4、ywithdrawal&fiscalstimulusinChina,35LiKeqiangIndex(lhs)30000reflationarypolicyoutsideChina,industrycapexdisciplineholdingfornow,FCFyieldRealM1Growth(3mma,3mlead,lhs)30supportonspotandincentivepricingunderpinningcashreturnpotential.25000FAMNG(RHS)•Keyeconomicindicatorshavedecel
5、eratedbutremainrobust–PMIs,TSF(+15%YTD),FAI(+9%),2520000propertymarkets(newstarts+10%),infrastructureinvestment,steelproduction(+4.2%),electricity20production(+7%)andexcavatorsales(+100%)allstrong.Chinacapacityclosuresareinducing15000inflationtoreducedebt(lowerNPLs)&pollutionw
6、hilemovingmanufacturingupthevaluechain.15Notalleffective–steelinstructuralovercapacity,coalmorepricedriven,limitingupside,allclearly1000010positive.50005•Trumpeffectlikelytobeindirectthanrealdemand(butpositive):bondexodusintoindustrials,inflation-basedphysicalassetinvestment.S
7、timulusof$50-100bnp.a.smallvsChina($1.8tn2016).00Basemetalspositivelycorrelatedtobondyields.Jan-04Oct-06Jul-09Apr-12Jan-1520/06/2017•Ironorefallwaskeydownsiderisk–thishasnowhappened.Oligopolybehavinglikeone,$50/t120floorlikelytobedefended.ManagementchangeatValeandpotentiallyBH
8、Pcouldcatalysesupply110withdrawal.Aluminium&copperlookinginte
