瑞信-欧洲-金属与采矿业-2019年Q2金属与采矿业供应追踪：铁矿石价格下跌的警告信号尚未结束-2019.8.12.pdf

《瑞信-欧洲-金属与采矿业-2019年Q2金属与采矿业供应追踪：铁矿石价格下跌的警告信号尚未结束-2019.8.12.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、12August2019Europe/UnitedKingdomEquityResearchDiversifiedMetals&MiningMetalsandMiningResearchAnalystsSECTORREVIEWConorRowley442078839156conor.rowley@credit-suisse.comQ219supplytracker–WarningsignalsSamuelCatalanothatfallsarenotoverforironore442078830346samuel.cata

2、lano@credit-suisse.comAlexandrRyuminFigure1:RioTintovssteelequityindex(Rhs)–inUSD442078833015alexandr.ryumin@credit-suisse.com8050045070SpecialistSales:JamesBrady4006044207888426735050james.brady@credit-suisse.com300402502003015020100105000Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Jul-13

3、Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19RIOSteelequityindexSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimates,ThomsonReuters■Summary:TheironorepricehasbeenweakoverthepastfewweekswithalleyesontheturnaroundintrajectoryofChinaportinventory;howev

4、er,wethinkthereismoretothestorythatwarnsoffurtherweakness.Onthedemandside,wethinktherecentweaknessinsteelpricescancontinueinChinawiththemacroremainingweakandsteelinventorynowrisingquicklyandcounter-seasonally.Thissteelmillmarginsqueezeshouldputpressureonironorepri

5、cesinitselfbutcouldthenalsotranslatetofallingsteelproduction(ironoredemand).Onthesupplyside,wearequicklymovingawayfromatightmarketwithoursupplytrackershowingsupplyonsetinH219shouldbringusbacktoH218levels.Now,withtheabnormalsupplysituationinironorecomingtoanend,wet

6、hinkironoreandRiocanbegintopriceinthemoredownbeatsteeldemandsituationinChinaasthesteelnamesalreadyhave.So,withlittlecostsupport,weseelittlereasonforthedeclineinironoretostophere.■RIOremainsleastpreferred:WerecentlydowngradedRiotoUnderperform(RIO.L-Approachingaturn

7、ingpoint.DowngradetoUnderperform).Beinglargelyapure-playironoreproducer,weseeRioTintoasmostatriskwiththetideofironorepricesturning.Westillbelieveitisaworld-classbusiness,yetlackofnear-termgrowthmakesitdifficultforthecompanytooffsetacommodityprice-drivenearningsdec

8、line.■Copper/Zinc/Aluminium:Laterinthisreport,weanalysethecopper/aliandzincmarkets.Coppercontinuestoseenophysicalsignsoftightnesswithinventoriesrising,T