瑞信-亚太地区-金属与采矿业-COVID-19关闭后，价格下跌-2020.4.7.pdf

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1、7April2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific

2、AustraliaBulksForecastsPricessoftenonCOVID-19shutdownsDiversifiedMetals&Mining

3、SectorForecastConnectionsSeriesCOVID-19drivenindustrialshutdownshavespikedbulksprices.SteelmillsareTheCreditSuisseConnectionsSeriesleveragesourcurtailinggloballyinthelockdowns,and

4、electricitydemandhasplummetedwithindustrialexceptionalbreadthofmacroandmicroresearchtoproduction.Thesteelcutsareonlyslightlynegativeforironore,butimportantformetcoal.deliverincisivecross-sectorandcross-borderElectricitydemandishardhit,impactingthermal,buttheNewcastlepricehasbeenresilient.thema

5、ticinsightsforourclients.ResearchAnalystsFigure1:Revisedironore,metcoalandthermalcoalpriceforecasts20191Q202Q203Q204Q202020202120222023LTMatthewHope61282054669(Act)(real)matthew.hope@credit-suisse.comIronorefinesNewUS$/dmt9389857876827770607562%FeOldUS$/dmt93989585809080706075YangLuoChinaCFRCh

6、g%0%-9%-11%-8%-5%-9%-4%0%0%0%85221016328yang.luo@credit-suisse.com58%FelowAlNewUS$/dmt8579777168746961526558%FehighAlNewUS$/dmt76676862606462564862CarstenRiek65%FeNewUS$/dmt1051039890889590816986442078839672MetCoalNewUS$/t176150130140155144163160160160carsten.riek@credit-suisse.comHCC(PMV)OldU

7、S$/t176165180170150166166160160160SamWebbFOBAust.Chg%0%-9%-28%-18%3%-14%-2%0%0%0%61282054535SemisoftcoalNewUS$/t11910410494104101109107107105sam.webb@credit-suisse.comULV-PCIcoalNewUS$/t129110110102113109119117117120CaioRibeiroThermalcoalNewUS$/t766662606463687575752123257804N’castle6000kcOldU

8、S$/t76666666666669757675caio.b.ribeiro@credit-suisse.comFOBAustChg%0%0%-6%-9%-3%-5%-1%0%-2%0%Hiash5500kcNewUS$/t55555050505153606062PrateekSingh912267773894Source:CreditSuisseestimatesprateek.singh@credit-suisse.comSteeloutputreductionshavehadamodestimpactonseaborneironoredemand.ConorRowleyInC

9、hina,a40MtreductioninEAFoutputaccountsfortwo-thirdsofthesteelloss.China442078839156dominatestheseaborneironoremarketandex-Chinasteellosseshaveonlyaminorconor.rowley@credit-suisse.comimpact.Ironoresupplyremainstightespeciallyin1H.Weforec