瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-亚太地区风险与机会定位-2020.3.20.pdf

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1、20March2020EquityResearchAsiaPacificAsiaPacificStrategyPositioningforrisksandopportunitiesStrategy

2、StrategyFigure1:Ourindexof6MleadingAxJmarketindicatorsatpost-GFChighResearchAnalysts3.560%DanFineman3.050%66261462182.540%dan.fineman@credit-suisse.com2.030%WillStephens1.

3、520%852210170791.0will.stephens@credit-suisse.com10%0.50.00%EdmondHuang-10%85221016701-0.5edmond.huang@credit-suisse.com-1.0-20%-1.5-30%KinNangChikDec-08Feb-10Apr-11Jun-12Aug-13Oct-14Dec-15Feb-17Apr-18Jun-1985221017482Indexofleadingmarketindicators(LHS)MSCIAxJindex6Mfor

4、wardreturns(RHS)kinnang.chik@credit-suisse.comElitaLaiSource:Refinitiv,CreditSuisse85221017089elita.lai@credit-suisse.comAxJcanoutperformonthedownside.AlthoughweexpectthatabsoluteperformancewillfollownewsflowoninfectionsandfinancialstressesintheWest,withthepotentialform

5、oreshort-termdownside,webelievethatAxJcanoutperformthisyearineitherapositiveornegativeglobalscenario.ValuationsfavourAxJoverotherregions,andourindexofleadingAxJmarketindicatorsisinstronglybullishterritoryatapost-GFChigh.WebelievethatNorthAsiacancontinuetosucceedmorethan

6、otherregionsincontainingthevirusatsmallereconomiccost.EPSrevisionsandfallingoilpricesfavourAsiarelativetootherregions.WejudgeAxJ’sheavytechweightingasanadvantage.Revisionstomarketandsectorweightings.Inourfirstmajorrebalancingsincethevirushit,weincorporateviewsonvirusris

7、kandfinancialcontagionrisktocomplementourexistingfundamentalsscoringsystem.WeaddtoourexistingOverweightsinKorea,SingaporeandMalaysiaanddowngradeIndonesiafromOverweighttoMarketWeightandIndiafromMarketWeighttoUnderweight.Insectors,ourbiggestOverweightsremainITandinternet,

8、butwedowngradeInsurancefromOverweighttoUnderweightontheweakratesoutlook.Stockpositioning.Weoffertwobasketsoftoppicks—oneaBase-Casebasketwithafairlyneutralaggressive/defensivebias,andasecondBear-Casebasketfocusedondefensives.OurportfoliosareconstructedbyourAPACQuantitati

9、veandSystematicStrategyteam.TheyemploytheBlackLittermanmodeltocombineourvarioustop-down(market/sectorweighting