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1、9April2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、PhilippinesPhilippinesMarketStrategyPhilippinesinthetimeofCOVID-19MultiIndustry
3、StrategyFigure1:Weexpectearningstorecovertoonly87%ofouroriginal2021estimatesResearchAnalystsIndexEPS(Php)+12.6%HazelTanedo580Post-adjustmen
4、ts,ournew2021EPSestimateis13%lowerthan63288587757+11.4%ouroriginalestimateand6%hazel.tanedo@credit-suisse.com+11.0%530lowerthancurrentconsensus+17.2%ChescaBugia-Tenorioestimates+4.7%63288587752480chesca.bugia-tenorio@credit-suisse.comDanieloPicache4306328
5、8587758-6.8%danielo.picache@credit-suisse.com380VarunAhuja,CFA2017A2018A2019E2020E2021E6562123017CS-OldCS-NewConsensus-Currentvarun.ahuja@credit-suisse.comSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimatesJustinCimafranca63288587756Apandemic-triggeredcrash.Therisin
6、gnumberofdomesticCOVID-19casesandthejustin.cimafranca@credit-suisse.comLuzon-wideenhancedcommunityquarantinehassentthePCOMPonafreefall.Themarketdropped22%inMarchalone,andisnowthebiggestloserwithinASEANinlocalcurrencyterms.Thesituationonthegroundremainsext
7、remelyfluidandthegovernmenthaswarnedofapotentialrecessionwithasmuchas6.6%of2020’snominalGDPatrisk,shouldthelockdownextendfarbeyondtheoriginaltargetedend-dateof12April2020.Factoringinthestandstill.Wefactorinthestandstillusingaconservativeassumptionthatthel
8、ockdownwouldbeextendedbyanotherfullmonth.Wecut2020/21Eearningsacrossourcoverageby16%/13%onaverage,andwenowseeindexEPSdeclining6.8%in2020E(from+11.0%)andrising+16.8%in2021E(from+12.6%).Post-adjustment,weexpectearningstoonlyrecoverto87%ofouroriginal2021esti
9、mates.Intheshortterm,liquidityandsolvencywilllikelybeofgreaterinvestorconcern.However,ouranalysisshowsthatcompaniesingeneralhaverobustbalancesheetsandarelikelytoweatherthestorm.Investingamiduncertainty.Wecutourindextargetto6,800from8,700,asweaccountforour
10、newtargetpricesinourbottoms-upmodel.Themarketisnowtradingata2021EP/Eof10.0xandonlyneedstodropanother18%tohitGFClows.Whileitisstilltooearlytocallthebottom,webelievethisisanattractiveentrypointforsomenames.Ournewindex
