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1、6January2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、SingaporeSingaporeMarketStrategyOutlook2020:AneventfulyearStrategy
3、StrategyFigure1:WeexpectamodestrecoveryinGDPgrowthto1.4%in2020EResearchAnalysts16.0%14.5%GeraldWong,CFA14.0%6562123037gerald.wong@credit-suisse.com12.0%9.8%10.0%9.0%
4、9.0%9.0%SingaporeEquityResearchAnalystTeamGeraldWong,CFA7.4%8.0%6.3%(Strategy/CapitalGoods)6.0%4.5%4.4%4.8%65621230373.9%3.9%3.7%4.0%2.9%3.0%3.1%NicholasTeh1.9%1.4%(Banks/Property–REITs)2.0%0.7%0.1%65621230260.0%LouisChua,CFA-2.0%(Property–Developers/Transport)-1.1%6562
5、12572120002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019*2020EVarunAhuja,CFA(TelecomServices)SGrealGDPgrowth(%)6562123017DannyChan*AdvanceestimatesfromMTI.Source:MTI,CEIC,CreditSuisseestimates(Gaming)60327232082■ModestGDPrecoveryshoulddrive
6、slowerearningscuts.WeexpectGDPgrowthtoRikinShahimproveslightlyto1.4%in2020E,drivenbyabottominginglobalindustrialproductionand(Exchanges)6562123098exports.However,recoveryislikelytobeunevenwithcertainindustriessuchashospitalityKweeHongChingandwealthmanagementseeingamores
7、ignificantuplift.Overall,thisshouldleadtoa6562123142slowerpaceofearningscutscomparedto2019.TerenceLee6562123011■Aneventfulyearahead.WhiletheoutcomeoftheupcomingGeneralElectionshasKylieWanlimitedcorrelationwithstockmarketperformance,therecouldbefurthereconomic6562123004t
8、ransformationfollowingtheElections.Inthenearterm,weexpectanexpansionaryBudgetShaunTan6562123024withhighersocialspendingandfocusedonsupportingemployment.■Corporaterestructuringshouldaccelerate.Followingastringofcorporateactionsin2019,companiesarelikelytoaccelerateonongoi
9、ngrestructuringtodrivehigherreturnsandincreasedividendpayouts.Severalsector-specificdrivers,includingtheawardofthe5Ganddigitalbankinglicenses,couldalsodrivedivergenceofperformanceacrosssectors.■Sticktobottomupideas.SingaporeremainsattractivewithintheregionwithitsP/Emult
10、ipleof13.0xinlinewithhistoricalaverageandofferingadividendyieldof4.2%.Wecontinuetoadoptabar-bellapproach,prefe
