瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-中国工业展望2020：替代周期还将继续-2020.2.14.pdf

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1、14January2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific

2、ChinaChinaIndustrialsSectorOutlook2020:ReplacementcyclehasfurthertogoIndustrials

3、SectorForecastFigure1:ConstructorsnewordergrowthFigure2:ConstructionmachinerygainingmomentumvaluationlowerthaninlastcycleResearchAnalystsMar2011120%18PE_FY0=17.6EdmondHuang100%16PE

4、_FY1=13.8PE_TTM=24.48522101670180%1460%Oct200712edmond.huang@credit-suisse.comPE_FY0=43.0Dec200940%10PE_FY1=33.7PE_FY0=26.6Nov201120%PE_TTM=43.4PE_FY1=20.8PE_FY0=10.38PE_TTM=27.6PE_FY1=8.5ZhaoZhang0%PE_TTM=10.66Nov201285221016915-20%PE_FY0=9.04Oct2008May2010PE_FY1=8.3-40%PE_FY0=10.0PE_FY0=14.0PE_TTM

5、=9.0zhao.zhang@credit-suisse.com2-60%PE_FY1=7.5PE_FY1=11.1PE_TTM=12.0PE_TTM=13.50MichaelWangJan-07Apr-07Jul-07Oct-07Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12CRCCCRGCCCC85221017763michael.wang@credit-suisse.comSource:Compa

6、nydataSource:TheBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONALTMserviceWeexpect2020infraFAItoaccelerateto6%from4%currently(for11M19),settobenefitfromtheexpansioninspecialbondquotaandincreasingallocationtoinfrastructureprojects.Ontopofthat,moderaterelaxationinlocalgovernments’financialleverageandpotentialimprovementinlocalgo

7、vernmentrevenueafterpropertypolicyeasingwillsupportinfrastructureFAIrecovery.Bothconstructionandmachinerysectorswillbenefitfromit,inourview.2020shouldbeanotherfruitfulyearforconstructionmachinery.Tighterregulationsonemissionstandardandstill-oldfleetagewillcontinuetounderpinreplacementdemand.Ourestim

8、atedaverageageofexcavatorfleetwas5.3yearsattheendof2019,stillhigherthanthereasonablevalueof4-5years.Weremainoptimisticonconcretemachineryandcrane,whichwilllikelydeliverthehighestgrowthin2020.Excavatorgrowthin2020islessexcitingthanothertypesduetohighbase,butstillhassolidsupportfordemand.Weexpectflatt

9、ishexcavatorvolumein2020,versuspreviousforecastof10%decline.Comparedtothepreviouscycle,manufacturershavebetterearningsqualityandstrongercashflowandbalancesheet,butlowvaluation,whichprovidesupsidepoten