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1、9January2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、ChinaChinaTechnologySectorHardwareoutlook2020:Stayinvestedfor5Gramp-upElectronicComponents&Connectors
3、ThemeFigure1:Keythemesandstockideasin2020ResearchAnalysts5GCapexKynaWong(O)(O)85221016950(O)kyna.wong@credit-suisse.
4、com(O)ChaolienTseng(O)(O)85221016795(O)Apple(O)Multi-camchaolien.tseng@credit-suisse.comPaulineChenSource:CreditSuisseresearch886227156323■5Ginfrastructurereadytorampup.Weanticipate2020tobethekeyinflectionpointpauline.chen@credit-suisse.comfor5Gwherecapexi
5、sexpectedtorecoverinChinaby16%.WemaintainourChina5GCliveCheungBTSnetaddsestimateat136kunitsin2019butraise2020Eto613kfrom545kunits.85221017069ZTEislikelytoslowdownitsshareinChinawhen5Ginitiallyrampsup,butitsoverseasclive.cheung@credit-suisse.commarketsharei
6、slikelytorecoverdueto4Gdemandinemergingmarkets.WeexpecttelcoStephenYincapextoshiftfrom4Gto5Grapidly,andby2021E,83%oftotalcapexwillbededicated85221016980to5G.Weestimate41%of5GcapextobeaddressablebyCCS.stephen.yin@credit-suisse.com■5Gphonestodrivereplacement
7、andupgrade.OurCStechstrategistforecastsglobal5Gsmartphoneshipmentstobe250mn/500mnin2020/21E,121mn/208mnunitstoshipinChina(48%/42%oftotalshipment).Wesee5GaskeytodrivingthereplacementcycleforChina'ssmartphonemarket.WeraiseourChinasmartphoneshipmentestimateto
8、-4%YoYfrom-6%in2019andnowestimate+5%YoYfor2020E.IntheApplesupplychain,weexpectlimitedupgradeinacoustic/haptic,upgradeincasing,antennaformmWAVE,andmoretriple-cam/ToF.IntheAndroidsupplychain,weexpectmulti-cam(tri-/quad-cam/ToF),under-displayfingerprint,SBS/S
9、LSacoustics,moreantenna,casing(3Dglass+mid-frame)tobemajorupgrades.TWSearphonescontinuetobeapromisingdriver.■Tradetrucelikelypricedin,whilefund-flowdrivingsentimentandrerate.WeseearerateonHK/Chinatechsectortobealsosupportedby(1)potentialde-escalationoftheU
10、S-Chinatradetension;(2)normalisedimpactofcurrenttradetariff;(3)increaseofweightofMSCIA-shareinclusion;and(4)domesticsubstitution.■Valuationlifttoupcycle.Webelieveimprovingfundamentalsandmultiplefactorsshoulds
