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1、21January2020EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesITHardware2020Outlook:AChallengingDemandBackdropBringsFocusBacktoExecutionITHardware
3、AnnualHeadinginto2020,we’recautiousonITHardwaredemand,asweexpectseveraloftheendResearchAnalystsmarketchallengesthatweighedonreven
4、ueinCY19toremainanoverhang.Theseinclude(1)continueddigestionofabove-trend2017/2018spend;(2)anuncertainmacrobackdrop,MatthewCabralextendingdealcyclesforlargercustomers;(3)amorecompetitiveenvironment,particularlyin4152497929Servers;and(4)afadingWindows10refreshcyc
5、leinPCs.Indeed,respondentstoourrecentmatthew.cabral@credit-suisse.comCIOsurveyindicatedtheiroverallhardwarespendislikelytogrowamodest0.3%,onavg,inDanKnauff,CFA‘20,relativelyflatvs.‘19andwellbelowthe3.1%expectedincreaseintheiroverallITbudgets.4152497925Inthisenvi
6、ronment,ourapproachcentersoncompany-specificexecutionthatcanleadtoEPS-daniel.knauff@credit-suisse.comdrivenupside/downsidein2020,particularlyaswedon’texpecttheoutsizedmultipleexpansionMichaelAllenseeninCY19torepeat(>80%ofsharepriceappreciationduetoP/Eexpansionla
7、styear).4152497926michael.allen@credit-suisse.comStorageremainsourpreferredendmarket:WefavorStorage,particularlyAll-Flash,whereweseethemid-rangedrivingreacceleratinggrowthin2020.Serversappearmostchallenged,concentratedinthetraditionalenterprisespacewithsoftdeman
8、dandrampingcompetitiveintensity.ForPCs,weseeareturntodeclineasthebenefitofWin10upgradesfade,especiallyin2H,thoughexpectCPUshortagestodistortthecadenceofshipments.Marginsakeyriskagainstachoppymacrobackdrop:GMupsideoffsetdecliningtop-lineexpectationsandwastheprima
9、rydriverofEPSgrowthforHardwarein‘19;weseeriskofthisreversingastransitoryfactors(namelyNAND/DRAM)fade.Servershasthegreatestrisktoprofitability,duetoanaggressivepricingenvironmentandlackofvendordifferentiation.OurbasecaseispricinginStorageremainsmorebenign,butwear
10、ecloselymonitoringrisksthatthecompetitiveintensityspillsover.ForPCs,weseemarginsgraduallytrendingbacktowardhistoricallevelsastheWin10refreshfadesandCPUconstraintsease
