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1、28January2020EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesAgriculturalSciencesSectorTimetoPlaythatBrokenRecord–Fertilizer#sStillFarTooHighasSupplyDrivenDynamicsContinuetoOffset2020DemandOptimismFertilizers
3、SectorReview■LowerFertilizerStockPricesareJustified–NotQu
4、iteYetaBuyingOpportunity:InResearchAnalystsourview,therecentpullbackinfertilizerstocksisjustifiedonlowerN&Kpriceprospectsfor2020(expectationsforPwerecrushed~6monthsago).WefullyacknowledgedownsideChristopherS.Parkinsonmaybelimitedatthispoint,sowesimplyfl
5、agcurrentlevelsaren’tthe“coiledspring”many2125386286christopher.parkinson@credit-suisse.combullsareexpecting.Ourbasereasoningspansacrossthefollowingsubjects:(i.)costcurvedeflation,(ii.)elevatedregionalinventories,(iii.)newsupplyrampsinN&K,and(iv.)ChrisC
6、ounihanelevateddemandexpectations.TwoChinesedemandcatalystsoftencitedbybullsareno442078837618longer2020themes:includingtheprospectoftheinitialattemptattheimplementationofchris.counihan@credit-suisse.comE10anda“V-shape”yr/yrrecoveryinfeedmarketsduetoeasy
7、compsfollowingASF.VictorSaragiottoBottomline–westillfeelbeingselectiveiswarrantedgivenoursenseofongoingvolatility.551137016303victor.saragiotto@credit-suisse.com■PreferFMCvs.CTVA;BestRisk/RewardinFertsRemainsMOS:FMCremainsourtoppickintheagspacegivenourc
8、onvictionin#s,portfoliobalance(diversification)anditsAmandaFooabilitytodrivemarginshigherin’20.Weexpectafavorableprogressioninyr/yrresultsfor60327232089CTVA,butbelievebuy-sideexpectationsaretoohighwhile#sstillmustadjustlower.Weamanda.foo@credit-suisse.c
9、omviewglobalN-P-Kdemandoutlooksasrelativelystable(ChineseKinventoriesstillan“x”GeraldWong,CFAfactor),butstresssupply-sidechallengesstillexistacrossall3macronutrients.However,6562123037fromarisk/rewardperspectivewestillpreferMOSvs.CF/NTRonthebackofPstrip
10、gerald.wong@credit-suisse.commarginimprovements(reducedChineseexports,DAPrebounding,lowerSprices,etc.).LucasBeaumont■LowFeedstockPricesareFlatteningNCostCurve,PlentyofNewSupply’19-‘23:2123252458Recentdeclinesinglobalgaspricesares
