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1、5January2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchFinancialTechnology&PaymentsPaymentDrivers2018ResearchAnalystsSECTORREVIEWPaulCondra2123258903paul.condra@credit-suisse.comMultipleTailwindsDriveGrowthandMrinaliniBhutoria2123252691Opportunity;AssessingCryptoPaymen
2、tsmrinalini.bhutoria@credit-suisse.comWeassessseveralpaymentsgrowthdriversandconcludepaymentsremainsabuoyantandattractivesectorforinvestment,benefittingfromstableeconomicgrowth,long-termtransformationaltrendsincommerceandawealthofM&Aopportunities.Long-termtrans
3、formationaldrivers:Despitesecularpressuresfacingtraditionalbrick-and-mortarretailpayments,weseegrowthopportunitiesintech-ledpaymentservicesbenefittingfromtransformationalchangestakingplaceinthepaymentslandscape.Specifically,wehighlightthegrowthofmobileandwebpay
4、ments,theexpansionofintegratedpaymentplatforms,thesteadyautomationofB2B/B2Cpayments,andthegradualmonetizationofP2P/socialpaymentsaskeysourcesoflong-termgrowth.M&Aopportunitiesabound,butvaluationshigh:Whilewebelievealongtailofsmallnichepaymentserviceproviderscan
5、offerexposuretovariouspocketsofgrowtharoundtheglobe,wenoteexpandingM&Avaluationsandrisinginterestrateshavethepotentialtodiluteaccretiveimpactandincreasefinancingrisk.Hence,wefavorreasonablyvalueddealswithclearsynergypotential.Inflationanddemographicsamildsustai
6、nedpositive:Webelievetheindustryisfavorablyexposedtothemoresubtletailwindsofrisinginterestratesanddemographics.Totheextentrisinginterestratesdriveinflation,thishasthepotentialtoexpandtransactionsize,providingmodestleveragefromrelativelyfixedcoststructureswithlo
7、wcapitalintensity.Demographicshiftsalsoprovidefavorablelong-termbenefitsforfirmsmoreexposedtomobileandonlinepaymentmethods,includingP2Pandsocialplatforms.Assessingcryptopayments:Weexpectfurtherevolutionofcrypto-paymentsin2018andnotethisindustryisverywell-funded
8、,abletoattracttopdevelopertalent,andlaser-focusedonpayments.Whileformidablebarriersexisttomassadoptiononaretaillevel,webelievecrypto-paymentsprovideuniquesolutionstolegacypa