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1、16January2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、VietnamVietnamMarketStrategy2020Outlook:SolidmacrobutlackingcatalystsStrategy
3、StrategyFigure1:Vietnam’s12MforwardP/Eatfour-yearlowResearchAnalystsFarhanRizvi,CFA6562123036farhan.rizvi@credit-suisse.comHaNgo6562128456ha
4、.ngo@credit-suisse.comSource:RefinitivDatastream,CreditSuisseestimatesAnotheryearofsolidgrowth:Headlinegrowthisonceagainexpectedtoremainstrongwith6.8%GDPgrowthin2020E(ADB),thehighestinASEAN.BroaderfundamentalsremainsolidwithrobustFDIflows,risingcurrentaccou
5、ntsurplus,stableinflationandrecordhighFXreserves.Consumptioncontinuestoremainakeygrowthdriver(+7%YoY)withretailsalesgrowthhittinga5-yearhighof11.8%in2019.Riskshavehoweveremergedintheformofspikeininflation(5%inDec)amidsurgingswinepricewhilefurtherslowdowning
6、lobalgrowthandslowpaceofinfrainvestmentcouldimpactgrowthoutlook.Valuationsmoreattractivebutinvestabilityachallenge:Vietnammarketistradingat12MFP/Eof13.5x(afour-yearlowbutclosetoitshistoricalaverage)andatthelowerendofAsianpeersdespitethethirdhighestEPSgrowth
7、(20%in2020E)behindKoreaandIndia.Whilevaluationsappearattractive,investabilityremainsachallengeamidaslowSOEdivestmentprocessandlimitedprogressonForeignOwnershipLimit(FOL)reformsas6outofthe13mostliquidstockshavenoFOLroom.IncreasingpushfromthePMinrecentmonthsa
8、smayleadtoapickupinSOEdivestmentsin2H20,andthereremainslowvisibilityonanymeaningfulprogressinaddressingFOLissues.Preferstockstiltedtowarddiscretionaryspending:Wedon’texpectanymaterialmultiplere-ratingin2020andcontinuetopreferstockslinkedwithhigherdiscretion
9、aryspendinginlinewiththestructuralgrowthtrendintheeconomy.OurtoppicksincludeVRE,VHM,MWGandVPB.WehavealsoleveragedCreditSuisseHOLT®,ourproprietaryequityanalyticalandvaluationtoolwherePNJ,KBCandREEscreenwell.Keyrisksinclude(i)intensificationoftheanti-corrupti
10、ondrive,(ii)re-emergenceofUS-Chinatradetensionsand/ormeasuresextendingtoVietnam,and(iii)slowerpaceofinfrastructureinvestment.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTC
