资源描述：
《瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-印尼市场策略：还有多久才能复苏？-2020.4.14.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、14April2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、IndonesiaIndonesiaMarketStrategyNavigatingaseaofuncertainties(III):Howlongwillittaketorecover?Strategy
3、StrategyFigure1:JCIEPStrend—CSbasecaseassumesrecoveryto2019EPSlevelin2022ResearchAnalysts600Blue-skyscenario2021togetbackto2019MarketEPS.AndriNg
4、aserinCity'unlocks'late-2Q20500622125537917Basecasescenarioandri.ngaserin@credit-suisse.com2022togetbackto2019MarketEPS.Rp-400City'unlocks'3Q20GregoriusGaryGrey-skyscenario3002023togetbackto2019MarketEPS.622125537911City'unlocks'late-2020gregorius.gary@credit-suisse.com200JCIEPS(Posi
5、tive)100-20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022EBlue-skyBasecaseGrey-skySource:theBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,CreditSuisseestimatesHowlongwillittaketorecoverto2019NPAT?Wethinkitwilltake2.5years,oruntil2022,beforetheJakartaCompositeIndex(JCI)marketNP
6、ATcanexceedthe2019-levelNPAT.OurbasecasestemsfromIndonesia‘unlocking’economicactivitiesinlateJul/earlyAuganddailynewcasestopeakinMay.Therefore,economicandwealthstagnation/declineisexpectedfor~fivemonthsandcorporatesarelikelyneedtore-leverageanduseuptheirsavings.Wefurtherexpecttoseelo
7、nger-lastingwealthdamagesnotdissimilarto2015,uponIndonesiacurrencydepreciatingYTDby~15%,therebyaffectingcorporatemargins/volumeconsumption.However,weseethisrealisticallyandfinditencouragingthatthegovernmenthasbeendecisivewithitsstimuluspackageandflattening-the-curveefforts.Government
8、stimulus:Decisivequickreaction.Weviewthegovernment’sstimuluspolicy(>Rp400tn,2.5%ofGDP)positivelyinlightofthespeedofreactionneededtofightCOVID-19.Thisisbroadinscope(healthcare,incomesafety-net,etc.)andnon-fiscalstimulusmeasuressuchasloanstructurerelaxation,BIModernMonetaryTheory,andsp
9、ecialliquiditylinesarelikelytopre-emptfutureproblems.Weestimatethestimuluscanprovide20mnhouseholdswiththreemonthsofsurvivalpackage,assumingproperchannelingensues.Thatsaid,governmentdebtburdenpressureswilllikelycauseburdenforfutureyears,resultinginarecoverythatmaynotbeasstrongin2021-2
10、2oncetheCOVI
