资源描述：
《印尼市场策略：还有多久才能复苏.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、IndonesiaIndonesiaMarketStrategyNavigatingaseaofuncertainties(III):Howlongwillittaketorecover?Strategy
3、StrategyFigure1:JCIEPStrend—CSbasecaseassumesrecoveryto2019EPSlevelin2022ResearchAnalysts600Blue-skyscenario2021togetbackto2019AndriNgaserinMarketEPS.C
4、ity'unlocks'500late-2Q20622125537917andri.ngaserin@credit-suisse.com)eBasecasescenariov4002022togetbackto2019itisoMarketEPS.GregoriusGaryCity'unlocks'3Q20(PS300622125537911PGrey-skyscenarioEgregorius.gary@credit-suisse.comIp2023togetbackto2019C20R0J-MarketEPS.City'unlocks'late-20
5、20100-00000000101010101010101010910020120220262728292021222324252627282E2E2E2EBlue-skyBasecaseGrey-skySource:theBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,CreditSuisseestimatesHowlongwillittaketorecoverto2019NPAT?Wethinkitwilltake2.5years,oruntil2022,beforetheJakartaCompositeIndex(JCI)marketN
6、PATcanexceedthe2019-levelNPAT.OurbasecasestemsfromIndonesia‘unlocking’economicactivitiesinlateJul/earlyAuganddailynewcasestopeakinMay.Therefore,economicandwealthstagnation/declineisexpectedfor~fivemonthsandcorporatesarelikelyneedtore-leverageanduseuptheirsavings.Wefurtherexpectto
7、seelonger-lastingwealthdamagesnotdissimilarto2015,uponIndonesiacurrencydepreciatingYTDby~15%,therebyaffectingcorporatemargins/volumeconsumption.However,weseethisrealisticallyandfinditencouragingthatthegovernmenthasbeendecisivewithitsstimuluspackageandflattening-the-curveefforts.G
8、overnmentstimulus:Decisivequickreaction.Weviewthegovernment’sstimuluspolicy(>Rp400tn,2.5%ofGDP)positivelyinlightofthespeedofreactionneededtofightCOVID-19.Thisisbroadinscope(healthcare,incomesafety-net,etc.)andnon-fiscalstimulusmeasuressuchasloanstructurerelaxation,BIModernMonetar
9、yTheory,andspecialliquiditylinesarelikelytopre-emptfutureproblems.Weestimatethestimuluscanprovide20mnhouseholdswiththreemonthsofsurvivalpackage,assumingproperchannelingensues.Thatsaid,governmentdebtburdenpressureswilllikelycauseburdenforfutureyears,resultinginarecoverythatmaynotb
10、easstrongin2021-22oncetheCOVID-19pressur
