瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-2019年Q2印尼市场总结：紧缩的力量-2019.8.12.pdf

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1、12August2019AsiaPacific/IndonesiaEquityResearchStrategyIndonesiaMarketStrategyResearchAnalystsSECTORREVIEWAndriNgaserin622125537917andri.ngaserin@credit-suisse.com2Q19wrap-up:Contractionaryforces—2Q19GregoriusGary622125537911marketNPATat-11%YoYgregorius.gary@credit-suisse.comFigure1:Marketr

2、evenue&ex-commoditiesrevenuevsnominalGDP18%13%16%12%14%11%12%10%10%8%9%6%8%4%7%2%0%6%141414141515151516161616171717171818181819191Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2QMarketRevenue-LHSMarketexcl.Commodities-LHSNominalGDP-RHSSource:Companydata,theBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,CreditSui

3、sseresearch■Softerthanexpected.Overall,2Q19earningswereworsethanouralready-lowexpectationswith2Q19marketearningsdecliningto-11%YoYvsCSexpectationsof-7%YoY.In2Q19CScoveredstocksgrewNPATat+4%YoYvsourexpectationsof+6%YoY(non-coveredcommoditieswerethemaindrag).Therevenuetrend(primaryindicator)d

4、eceleratedin2Q19to+4%YoYortheslowestpacesince2015.Sectorswhichledthedisappointmentswerecommodities(-34%YoY)andinfra&property(-45%YoY),theformerduetoaweakcommoditiespricingenvironment.2Q19marketROEdeclinedto13%from14-15%historicallyasmarginsfellacrosssectors.Onthemacrofront,theGDPprintdecele

5、ratedin2Q19to5.05%from1Q19’s5.07%andbroadmoneyindicatorsM1/M2remainlowat+5%/+7%(perJune;thisamidasituationofcontinuedhigh-systemLDR.■Telco,staplesoutperforming.Wehadexpectedtelcostoperformduetoahealthytariffenvironmentandalowbasein2Q18,butstaplesimprovementcameasasurprise(seeDeidy’sreport:S

6、trong2Q19boostedbylowinputcosts).Overall,telcoandtowerearningsdoubledfromthelowbasethisyear,asimprovedtariffresultedinimprovedprofitability.Multiplesmallcapsalsosawprofitsjumpthisquarterwithhealthyrevenuetrends:DMAS,KINO,ARNA,MNCN.■JCIlackingcatalysts;torallyin4Q19.WebelievetheJCIIndexlacks

7、catalystandwillrunsidewaysbeforerallyingin4Q1.Catalystsinclude:(1)governmentpolicyresponsetoincentiviseinvestments(revisednegativeinvestmentlist,potentialincometaxratereduction,moretaxholidayapprovals,changeinlabourlaw),(2)currencystabilityafterrecentvol